Natallia Radzina: Trump Can Negotiate Changes In Belarus Without Lukashenka

It is much easier to change the situation in our country than in Russia.

How will the election of Donald Trump as the US President affect the situation in Belarus? With whom can Washington negotiate changes in our country?

Natallia Radzina, the Editor-in-Chief of Charter97.org, talked about this and more in an interview with the YouTube channel of the famous journalist Yevgeny Kiselyov:

— My Estonian friend, a well-known specialist in strategic communications, instead of "good day" now wishes "good Trump to all!" No one knows what the policy of the new US president will be, we can only guess and make assumptions today. Some believe that a catastrophe awaits us all, some are in euphoria. I am cautiously optimistic. I believe that Trump will have to act decisively against the Putin regime. Of course, he will try to talk to the Russian dictator and arrange a truce. But even those plans that are published in the American press are absolutely impossible, Putin will not go for the creation of a demilitarized zone, Ukraine will not agree to abandon NATO for 20 years, the loss of Crimea and 20% of territories.

It is quite clear that the Russian dictator is not going to stop, this can be seen from the reports from the front. The Russians are advancing in the Donbas, there is information about the threat to Zaporizhzhia. It is clear that only force can stop Putin. The US President will have to use this force if he intends to maintain American influence in our region and throughout Eurasia.

Answering the question of Yevgeny Kiselev about whether the US policy would be isolationist, the Editor-in-Chief of the Charter97.org website noted that Marco Rubio and Michael Waltz, who were nominated for the posts of Secretary of State and National Security Advisor, are supporters of active US policy in the international arena, and if Washington wants to stop China, it will have to intervene in the war in Ukraine:

— China directly supports Russia in the war against Ukraine, supports the dictatorship in North Korea that joined the war, China supports Iran, which is trying to destroy Israel. China is trying to seize Taiwan by force. We know they have plans to do this by 2027. Therefore, the United States will have to join this war, because it will not be possible to pull Putin away from China through agreements. Russia has already turned into a raw material appendage of this country.

I am pleased with the reaction of Europe, which today says that if the United States withdraws from Russia's war against Ukraine, the Europeans can have their say. Listen to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's words. He said that NATO should not only help Ukraine defend itself, but win this war. In Europe, everyone is well aware of the threats coming from Russia, that if you agree to the occupation of 20% of Ukraine, tomorrow Narva, Daugavpils, Suwalki corridor may be captured. Therefore, it is necessary to act decisively.

Again, there were statements from British Prime Minister Starmer, French President Macron, who spoke about their intention to persuade outgoing US President Biden to allow British and French missiles to hit Russia. Also, the statement of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who said that assistance to Ukraine should not stop, and the threat from Russia is huge.

How will the election of Trump affect Belarus? Natallia Radzina believes that the United States needs a separate strategy:

— The situation in Belarus will depend on the US attitude towards Russia. The Belarusian dictatorship is an appendage of the Russian one, and Lukashenka exists only thanks to the support of the Kremlin. Here I would like to pay attention to Belarus as a separate state and a strategically important country. Because Putin uses the Belarusian territory as a military base to threaten Ukraine and NATO member states — Poland, Lithuania, Latvia. Tactical nuclear missiles can be launched from the territory of Belarus, as Lukashenka has repeatedly stated.

It is important to build a separate strategy for Belarus, because it is much easier to change the situation in our country than the situation in Russia. Given that the majority of Belarusians are against the dictator, which was demonstrated in 2020, this is still visible today, although the repression does not stop. It is obvious that Lukashenka is not popular. Moreover, we see the establishment's mood, which is aware that Lukashenka's time is coming to an end.

The Lukashenka regime allowed political prisoner Maryia Kalesnikava to meet with her father. The Editor-in-Chief of Charter97.org also draws attention to the situation with other prisoners of conscience:

— I must say that there is one person in the regime of a complete information blockade — Mikalai Statkevich — the leader of the Belarusian opposition, about whom there is no information. There was news about Maryia Kalesnikava, Viktar Babaryka, and Maksim Znak. People came out of the prisons and said that they were alive. Unfortunately, we have known nothing about Mikalai Statkevich for more than two years. This man has been in solitary confinement for four and a half years — since May 2020. It's a monstrous torture. We simply do not know whether this political prisoner is alive, because he has no contact with either a lawyer or his wife, he is prohibited from correspondence and phone calls. Given his serious health condition, we are afraid that he is no longer alive. Therefore, today the world needs to show Mikalai Statkevich, as Maryia Kalesnikava was shown. I was glad to see her, glad that she was healthy, as far as we can tell. After all, the photo can be retouched and filtered. But she's alive, and that's the main thing.

Could this play staged by the regime be a signal to the US? Is Lukashenka able to offer anything to Trump? Natallia Radzina is sure that the dictator is absolutely dependent on the Russian Federation:

— Of course, this is an attempt to negotiate not only with the United States, but also with Germany, which is actively demanding the release of Maryia Kalesnikava. Let me remind you that until 2020, she lived in Germany for 10 years. Of course, we would welcome her release. But we must not forget that there are other political prisoners sentenced.

Lukashenka has nothing to offer Trump, he is completely dependent on Putin. There was an attempt by the United States to pull Lukashenka away from Russia until 2020. This was a mistake on the part of both Europe and the United States. They lifted sanctions from the dictator, when Minsk since 2015 became an international platform for negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, Lukashenka came out of international isolation. It didn't lead to anything. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Advisor John Bolton visited Minsk. However, 2020 came, then everyone was convinced that Lukashenka was a dictator under total Putin's control, and 2022 deprived even the most naive of illusions when the dictator allowed the Russian army to enter Ukraine from the territory of Belarus.

The transaction is concluded by equal partners and people with authority. Lukashenka does not control the situation and does not run the country today. Belarus is controlled by the Kremlin, this is clear to everyone. Lukashenka's dependence on the regime in Russia is total. In the economic, political and military spheres. If Lukashenka tries to make a deal with Trump bypassing Putin, his life will end there.

I do not think that such thoughts come to Trump's mind — Lukashenka is too petty for him, just an old decrepit dictator, whose time is running out.

If the United States wants changes in Belarus, it is necessary to negotiate not with Lukashenka, but with the democratic opposition and the establishment, which understands that the dictator's time is coming to an end, that the country needs reforms and withdrawal from Russian influence, accession to the EU and NATO. We need to talk to such establishments and the opposition. It is promising.

How will Belarusians behave in the upcoming "elections"? Natallia Radzina believes that on January 26 we will see empty polling stations:

— Some clowns were registered as candidates, some of them have already been filtered. It is quite clear that there will be non-alternative "elections". Lukashenka will draw himself 80-90% support, which, of course, will not be from Belarusians. No one recognizes these "elections".

I think that Belarusians will ignore these "elections". Of course, there will be attempts to force people to vote ahead of schedule — this is Lukashenka's ordinary practice. But directly on the day of the "elections", I think most Belarusians will not go to the polls, because there is no point in participating in this circus. Today, the opposition for the most part calls on Belarusians not to participate in this mediocre show and not to come to the "elections". These empty poll stations can become a protest demonstration in Belarus.

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