'Putin Will Have To Admit His Defeat In Belarus'
34- 10.12.2024, 21:25
- 40,048
Any regime falls, even if 95%-support is drawn to it.
Everyone is surprised at how quickly the Assad regime fell in Syria — in 11 days. Why did it happen so quickly? Charter97.org spoke about this with Boryslav Bereza, Ukrainian politician, former member of the Verkhovna Rada:
— Assad's power rested solely on two things — a dictate built on the security forces, as well as assistance from Russia and Iran. Iran helped through Hezbollah. Hezbollah has now been completely weakened by Israel, effectively defeated. Russia is focused on Ukraine. Accordingly, I could not give help. Moreover, there was an official response from Russia that it now has other priorities.
Given that there was no help from either Iran or Russia, there was nothing to count on. And the security forces simply could not oppose anything to the organized rebels. That's all, it all ended very quickly and swiftly. This is how any regime falls, even if 95% of support is drawn to it in the elections.
Putin, in my opinion, was also drawn 84%. But when his regime falls (and he falls swiftly and quickly), there will be exactly the same reaction. And those who were silent when they drew Putin's votes in the elections will rejoice in the same way.
— The main beneficiary of the events in Syria is called the head of Turkey Erdogan. Erdogan outmaneuvered Putin in Syria?
— Look, I wouldn't be so sure. The forces that have now come to power in Syria are not pro-Turkish. Yes, there is a certain direction that the Turks control, but they absolutely monitor their interests. And the format they will choose will not be pro-Turkish. It will be, let's say, either an Islamic dictatorship or a military dictatorship.
The question of how much they will cooperate with Turkey depends only on personal interests and motivations that will be taken into account or not taken into account by the Turks in this case. Simply, partners in the form of Iran and Russia will be replaced by other partners. And not the fact that they will be Turkey.
— Putin did not save his puppet Assad. Will he defend Lukashenka if something like this happens?
— Putin considers Belarus his territory, his own really. Just by some misunderstanding, there is still a "governor" who feels free. No more, no less. Therefore, he considers Belarus as his territory, part of the Russian Empire.
But Putin expects to fix this over time. He will not defend Lukashenka, Lukashenka is indifferent to him, like any other Belarusian. Putin will defend his interests.
But if he cannot oppose anything, if the forces inside Belarus rise so much that he sees his inability to counteract this, and all the forces of Russia are now concentrated in Ukraine, then Belarus will gain independence.
If Belarus turns to the West, and it is supported, then Putin will have no option but to admit his loss. Another loss after Moldova, Romania and now Syria. In addition, we must not forget another point: for example, Putin will be able to bring Russian police officers who will be dressed in Belarusian uniforms, he will even be able to use certain pro-Russian officials within the government. But Putin will not be able to send troops into Belarus, if the country rises on its own, the people will rise up.
Putin defended the Yanukovych regime in the same way. If you remember, he sent his riot police, he sent his snipers who shot people on the Maidan, he sent his instructors. That's all he had at the time. Now, of course, he will try to use larger tools. But again, the spectrum is not very large.
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