‘This Thought Keeps Lukashenka Awake’

Why is the dictator afraid that they will negotiate behind his back?

Lukashenka's Foreign Ministry said that he wants to participate in possible peace talks after the war in Ukraine. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry responded harshly to the Belarusian regime.

“The only thing that Belarusian officials have the right to claim is a fair trial as part of the process of bringing the aggressor and his accomplices to international legal responsibility for aggression against Ukraine,” the representative of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry added.

Why did the Belarusian regime raise this issue? Charter97.org spoke about this with Maksym Pleshko, PhD in Philosophy and head of the Ukrainian Center for Belarusian Communications:

— Lukashenka has been preparing for this issue for a long time. It's not just like that. He has previously stated that “we would like to be at these talks so that “they don't talk about us without us.” This is also the goal of domestic policy. Let me remind you that the “elections” in the country are scheduled for six months earlier. I think this is due to the fact that Lukashenka wants to be a participant in the negotiations. If the “elections” had been held on schedule, coincided with the negotiations, changes at the front, Trump and other circumstances — it is unknown how they would have ended.

It turns out that Lukashenka wants, as he thinks, to strengthen his position, on the other hand, he is speeding up to avoid risks. After all, the memory, the thought of the protests of 2020 does not allow him to sleep peacefully. Now these statements come from Lukashenko's Foreign Ministry. Obviously, this is a long game, which is also connected with actions inside the country.

— The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry responded harshly that the main danger for Belarus is Russia, and instead of negotiations, the regime is waiting for international justice. What does such a statement mean?

— The statement of the Ukrainian side is clear, unambiguous and politically correct. From a legal point of view, Lukashenka is an aggressor who violated the Constitution of his own country, which prohibits the use of Belarusian territory to attack other countries. Lukashenka is a co-aggressor, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry emphasized this. I would like to draw attention to an interesting formulation. They stated that the dictator can count not on negotiations, but on a fair consideration of his case by international justice. There he can say that “he did not want to, but Vladimir turned his troops through Kyiv”. Here the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry left him a maneuver for “zigzagging”, but only in one direction. In general, the statement is very tough and verified. Lukashenka must decide whether he is a victim or a co-aggressor.

— Ukrainian Ambassador-at-Large Ihor Kizim said that Kyiv's relations with Lukashenka are in the past. Is this the end of relations between Kyiv and official Minsk?

— I believe that the fear of part of Belarusian society — the democratic opposition, immigration, the underground — that “Ukraine will come to an agreement with Lukashenka” is psychological pressure from the regime. The dictator is trying to show his electorate that he is the “guarantor of stability” and to the supporters of change that “nothing will change, I will come to an agreement with everyone, don't move.” The regime is throwing out these kinds of theses. I have heard these questions from the Belarusian media many times. I believe that the Belarusian regime is trying to use fear. Look at the tough statement of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry. This is not a statement taken out of thin air. It is obvious that it was prepared by the relevant department, its position was agreed upon with the Minister of Foreign Affairs, and he with the President. In Ukraine, it is the President who is responsible for international policy and defense. This statement determines the political position and behavior. Can this line change? We cannot rule out anything. However, at the moment, Ukraine's political line has been determined.

— Why is Lukashenka afraid of negotiations behind his back? Could the issue of demilitarization and the withdrawal of Russian troops from Belarus be raised during possible negotiations?

— Russian troops in Belarus are a potential danger not only for Ukraine, but also for the Baltic countries and Poland. Therefore, the task of not only Kyiv, but also other countries is to ensure that they are not on Belarusian territory. Obviously, Ukraine can pose the question this way, because it affects regional security.

The second thing that can worry Ukraine is the penetration of Russian special services into Belarusian ones. Here, Ukraine can hardly demand anything, but Kyiv is worried that the Belarusian military-industrial complex is tied to the Russian one.

Obviously, to the issue of demilitarization and withdrawal of Russian troops, I would add the issue of democratization and transit, the issue of justice. After all, some Belarusians were forced to leave the country, many are in prison. Justice must be returned.

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