Europe Is Waking Up

Europeans began to realize that they could stay alone.

Recent statements by French President Emmanuel Macron about the creation of a missile coalition, which is designed to provide Ukraine with long-range weapons, and even about the possibility of the deployment of Western troops in the country, made a lot of noise.

Experts and political commentators put forward a lot of assumptions to explain the unusual French leader's statements. Some believe that this is Macron's work on his political legacy. Some see this as a well-thought-out move to create "strategic uncertainty".

But it seems to me that these words are a sign of the profound transformation of the European political elite. In particular, the elite of the only EU member state with nuclear weapons – France.

Europeans began to realize that they could stay alone. If they haven't already.

Political processes in the United States are beyond doubt – it is high time for the European Union and other countries of the civilized world to think about ensuring their own security.

You can reread the famous Article 5 of the Washington Treaty of NATO as much as you want, but it is no longer possible to convince yourself that the Americans and other allies will definitely come to the rescue in the event of an attack by Russia or Iran.

Although the whole concept of European security was connected precisely with the belief in the immediate intervention of America and its "nuclear umbrella". European countries maintained "small smart armies", it must be confessed, really did not fully fulfill their obligations for defence financing within the framework of NATO, as Donald Trump likes to recall.

It may seem that the fears of Europeans (and not only) are associated with Trump's potential victory in the upcoming US presidential election. But it is only part of the truth. The victory of the representative of the Democratic Party, in which the "progressive" wing is gaining strength, also does not bode well.

There is a high probability that in any outcome of the elections in the United States, America will follow the path of isolationism. Just with different approaches.

We will not return to the endlessly discussed topic of the inability of Congress to approve assistance for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. There is another recent example.

In early February, President Joe Biden issued a memorandum that was actively promoted by “progressives” and now calls it a “tectonic shift in American politics.” According to the document, all countries that receive military assistance from the United States must comply with international law, ensure access to humanitarian assistance and respect human rights.

In addition, recipients of American weapons must now constantly report on these issues. Otherwise, the Secretary of State may suspend the provision of military assistance. The Democratic Party wants to elevate this document to the rank of law so that any next US president cannot cancel it.

It is quite obvious that now this memorandum is addressed to Israel, which is opposed by a significant part of the Democrats.

But one day these rules, if politicians need to, can be imposed against other recipients of US military assistance. Including Ukraine or potentially European countries.

So the problem is not just Trump and his followers. It is much deeper, and in Europe, apparently, they already understand this.

Against the backdrop of publications by the largest media about the possible aggression of Russia against the Baltic countries, Poland and even Germany, European governments began to allocate billions of euros for rearmament.

In this matter, Europe has two natural allies – Ukraine and Israel. They were the first to bear the attack of an already formed bloc of aggressive dictatorships intent on imposing their rules on the entire civilized world.

Israel can take an active part in the rearmament of European countries, and it seems that it is already doing it. For example, Germany purchases the Hetz, the most modern missile defence systems, capable of shooting down ballistic missiles almost in space, and successfully tested in combat during the recent shelling of Israel by the Yemeni Houthis. The Netherlands also purchased it.

In addition, Israeli defense corporations sign large contracts with European countries for the supply of systems for armored vehicles – armament, patrolling, driving and monitoring.

Ukraine has invaluable experience in waging the largest war on the continent since the Second World War. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are the most combat-ready army in Europe, which is waging a war of the highest intensity on a gigantic front.

No one in Europe knows in practice how to fight a modern full-scale war. There is a suspicion that even civilian infrastructure is not ready for a potential strike by Russia and its allies. The presence of modern weapons, the quality of which is proven on the battlefield in Ukraine, does not mean the ability to use them effectively. The Ukrainian forces can do it.

It turns out that by the time the alliance of Russia, Iran, the DPRK and their proxy armies was finalized and worked out, the old conservative NATO had approached its decline. In this alliance, the main thing has been lost – trust. There is no reason to strengthen it so far.

To withstand the onslaught of mafia dictatorships, new forms of interaction are needed. A sound self-reliance.

There will be no other way but to spend much more on defence. We will have to overclock our defence industry. To forget many of the projects that Europe was so fond of before the beginning of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine.

Unfortunately, it turned out that the determining factor is not the number of "green" energy facilities, but the number of 155-mm shells.

Yes, for Europe, this will mean a drop in the civil standard of living, the end for many social projects, and so on. But when Putin's troops or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps arrive, the "social" may not be necessary. They are not interested in such nonsense.

The European Union must now rely not only and not so much on old agreements with allies, but also make very unpopular and painful decisions – for their own security. Actively involving Kyiv and Jerusalem in the closest cooperation, providing political, financial and military support.

It is also useful for Ukraine and Israel to overestimate the situation. Our countries, although each in different ways, faced serious problems due to the internal political crisis in the United States. There are no signs of successfully overcoming it so far.

It seems that we'll see our closest friends and allies among the countries of the European Union in the coming years. We have common threats, common enemies, and we have something to help each other.

Leonid Nevzlin, Ukrainska Pravda