Officer: Belarusians Are Being Prepared For War

There are some alarming signals.

Why are Belarusians increasingly hearing about a possible war from TV?

The Belarusian officer, on condition of anonymity, told Charter97.org whether such statements should be taken seriously:

— I think that here it is necessary to separate the propaganda part and the actions that are really taken. Lukashenka's trip to Ashmiany and threats on the borders with Lithuania are full of propaganda. All these exercises were held there for the sake of this photo with the Spitz.

As for the reality, what is alarming is the igniting level of hate and other indirect actions that may indicate something terrible. For example, SMS drafts. This is already an alarming signal, because wartime moments are gradually becoming the norm. Weapons, reservist training — before it frightened and surprised people, today it has become commonplace.

— Are Belarusians being prepared for war?

— Yes, this is preparation for war. Another question is that it may not happen. It all starts with schools and kindergartens. After all, our main idea used to be "anything but war", and today at every children's holiday there is an assault rifle or a machine gun. The TV is also becoming more aggressive. Some TV hosts threaten Lithuania, Poland, almost "to Berlin".

Further — all this ideological processing at the training, when officers come with big epaulets and tell the reservists horror stories about NATO, Ukraine, some "Banderites". For most, of course, such stories cause laughter. But they have their reasons to tell it. That's not just mere rhetoric.

— Is there an understanding among the officers that the Belarusians will not fight if they are sent — to break through the Suwalki corridor, for example?

— The more stars on the shoulder straps, the greater the detachment from reality. I think there is still a feature of military thinking. All sorts of KGB officers, people who work with moods, understand this perfectly well. In the first days of the war, it was they who conducted conversations, tried to find out whether the Belarusians were ready to fight against the Ukrainians. There is a clear understanding of sentiment at this level. As for the generals, I will not speak unambiguously.

They live in the paradigm of the "Russian world", "military brotherhood", Soviet manuals, which tell about enemies from NATO. They are detached from reality, do not talk to ordinary soldiers, communicate in their own narrow circles, wind each other up and talk nonsense. When generals tell on TV that "we will fight together with Russia", this must be believed, they think so.

— Is it possible to force the Belarusians to fight?

— Well, it's hard to say. There are also "ideological troops", the Wagnerites have worked with them. If we imagine that some Brest or Vitebsk paratroopers with internal troops enter the territory of Lithuania, and after some time they throw mobilized troops there, who are driven by retreat-blocking detachments , why not?

Much depends on the reaction. If there is a serious NATO reaction, then no orders and detachments will help. Belarusians are not fools, no one wants to die for some "Russian world".

— Recently, Polish General Skrzypczak said that the Belarusian army would be defeated in "two or three hours" if it attacked Poland. How do you assess his words?

— If we imagine that NATO responds with all its might to the potential entry of the Belarusian troops into the territory of Lithuania or Poland, aviation, heavy artillery will be involved, there will be a powerful missile strike on military facilities in Belarus — I give the Belarusian army a little more than a Polish general, but within 24 hours there will be little left of our troops.

If NATO gathers at different conferences, delays its response, consults, and thinks how important Lithuania is to them, then there may be different options.

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