Political scientist: Prigozhin Said Hello To Shoigu And Gerasimov
8- 23.05.2024, 19:00
- 30,580
They're both on the hook.
The purges reached the Russian General Staff. Lieutenant-General Vadim Shamarin, Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Federation, was detained. Earlier, Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Timur Ivanov and Chief Personnel Officer of this department Yuri Kuznetsov were detained.
What is behind these arrests? Charter97.org spoke about this with the famous Ukrainian political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko, the head of the Penta Center of Applied Political Studies:
— The irony of fate in this whole story with the arrests and searches of Shoigu's deputies is that this is such a "greeting" from the head of the Wagner PMC Yevgeny Prigozhin from the other world. He would probably be very happy to observe what is happening now with Shoigu's former deputies, and now Gerasimov's deputies too. But Putin removed him earlier.
I think this is the "settlement" of the conflict that Putin initiated personally. After all, he created a new element in the system of checks and balances of the Russian authorities during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Putin has long turned some people in his entourage against others. He forces them to conflict with each other and uses conflicts between them. Putin turned some "Kremlin towers" against others. Some of the official law enforcers against unofficial. As Prigozhin opposed Shoigu.
For quite some time, Putin used this to his advantage, but the conflict got out of control, almost shaking the entire Putin regime. This made Putin tense. Formally, they extinguished the fire by agreeing with Prigozhin, stopping the conflict last summer. But Putin saw danger on both sides. First, he removed the source of the main danger (force out of control) — Prigozhin.
Many believe that he removed him with the help of the former head of the Security Council Patrushev, who allegedly organized a special operation to eliminate the Wagner leader. Note that they did not immediately kill him, but after a couple of months.
As a result of the elimination of Prigozhin, Shoigu and Patrushev got more power. After a while, after about nine months, he removed both Shoigu and Patrushev from office. That is, Putin does not allow anyone to get stronger.
Now, through searches and arrests of people from the team of Gerasimov and Shoigu, he weakens the side (the military department) that won the conflict with Prigozhin. He doesn't let anyone get stronger, he keeps everyone on the hook. This is such a light version of the method that Stalin professed at the time: no one near should grow stronger.
Putin controls his close associates, keeps them near him in different positions: both Shoigu and Patrushev. But it removes people who were instruments both financially and organizationally for Shoigu and Gerasimov. It weakens them.
The fact that the closest people from the teams of Shoigu and Gerasimov are under investigation (or even in prison) is a signal for them. Like, you can be there too. Therefore, you should be as loyal as possible now. Otherwise, repeat the fate of your deputies.
In general, this is not only a cleaning, but also a tool for controlling the immediate circle. Signals not only to Shoigu and Gerasimov, who are on the hook, but also to other people around Putin, who are "towers of the Kremlin". Something similar can happen to you: keep an eye on your deputies and your ambitions.
— Should we expect more arrests? Shoigu, Gerasimov, some other "big" military leaders?
— Look, this is a trend. For Stalin, too, everything began with softer methods. If this process continues, then we will inevitably see some of the big people in prison. The one who is now considered immune, so in the famous proverb: the claws are stuck — the whole bird is lost.
We once talked about Putin's paranoia, if it develops, then the purge process will inevitably affect some of the first persons.
However, the more they fight among themselves, the better for Ukraine. To destroy the Putin regime, Russia must, first, lose the current war. This is possible if the West makes an effort and helps Ukraine as much as possible.
Secondly, of course, the situation in Russia. If, as a result, the Russian elites realize in time that they can become a victim if they do not resist. They need to turn on their self-preservation instinct and save themselves before it's too late.
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