Volodymyr Tsybulko: The Kremlin Hints That It’s Looking For Options To Get Out Of The War

Why is the West increasingly talking about joining the war on the side of Ukraine?

The Italian newspaper La Repubblica published an article about the "red lines" of NATO in the war in Ukraine. NATO troops can join the confrontation with Russia if the Ukrainian defence line in the northwest of the country is broken, or in the event of a military provocation by the Russians against the Baltic States, Poland or an attack on Moldova.

Leader of the Democrats in the US Congress Hakeem Jeffries made a statement today. He said that if Ukraine "falls", the United States will intervene in the conflict.

Why did the West start talking about direct entry into the war? Charter97.org spoke with Ukrainian political scientist and author Volodymyr Tsybulko about this and more:

— First, the West draws its lines. Most likely, the essence of the compromise on Ukraine, which is visible in the line of demarcation of troops at the moment, is a likely scenario not so much of freezing as of suspending hostilities and creating some kind of transitional period for Russian troops to leave the occupied Ukrainian territories. This is a hint that the West is, in general, ready on the demarcation line and the suspension of hostilities to discuss the withdrawal of Russian troops.

We see a mirror response to Russia's desires because the Kremlin has been hinting for a long time, about the last eight months, that it is ready to be satisfied with the current territorial acquisitions and look for a way out of the war. For the West, it is impossible to leave the war without resuming the territorial integrity of Ukraine, because this will stimulate the aggressor in the future. After all, it turns out that the aggressor has defeated international law, and the West cannot go for it.

Now the main intrigue of the Global Peace Summit in Switzerland is a resolution recognizing the territorial integrity of Ukraine within internationally recognized borders. This is a kind of marker — countries must either sign a memorandum that they recognize the territory of Ukraine within the 1991 borders, or they will have to create a whole system of sanctions that will collapse the Russian economy over the next couple of years.

— Can the West shift the "red lines"?

— As I said, this will stimulate the aggressor, the West cannot do this after the 1975 Helsinki Pact. This is a pact on European borders, and Russia has revised this pact, which is unacceptable from the point of view of civilized society. This can serve as an incentive for other aggressors. Moreover, Russia, not being punished for its aggression, will invade neighbouring countries with its desires and claims.

This is a fundamental point why the West first spoke about its readiness to send troops to Ukraine. No matter how much Western politicians postpone this prospect, it becomes clear that if Russia is not defeated on the territory of Ukraine, it will have to be defeated on the territory of Europe with the participation of Ukrainian soldiers on the side of the Russian Federation. There is a fear that Russia, occupying new territories, will mobilize the population from these acquisitions to the war with Europe. The Kremlin totally disregards the Geneva Conventions, as we can see. It is time to remember them, not to mention other international acts that Russia has violated.

— One of the "red lines" of NATO is the involvement of the Belarusian army in the war. Is a warning for Lukashenka?

— Lukashenka is trying to equalize on such a thin thread, although he is already a participant in the aggression against Ukraine. The use by the Russian Federation of the territory of Belarus to attack Ukraine is a violation of bilateral treaties between Kyiv and Minsk. Such agreements traditionally embody the obligation of the parties not to provide their territories for aggression against each other.

This is a typical international treaty, the Belarusian authorities violated it. The current Lukashenka regime is criminal, it is the power of war criminals. It remains only a question of the gravity of the crime — either Lukashenka remains a criminal with his small group of officials, or he will try to draw the entire Belarusian people into the war against Ukraine.

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