Putin's Key Problem

The head of the Kremlin is ignored.

We will not see anything critically new after Putin's inauguration. The war will definitely continue or perhaps even intensify. We can definitely expect a deterioration in relations between Russia and the global West. At the same time, if we are talking only about diplomatic war, then this is the best option.

After all, during this cadence of Putin, there is a possibility of a direct military clash between Russia and NATO.

As for the domestic cuisine, we will be able to see an increase in repression within the Russian Federation, the country will become even more totalitarian. This process has already begun, and it will continue and even intensify with the new term of Putin's presidency.

Now there is a lot of information that after the next coming to power, Putin will change the Minister of Defence – Shoigu. However, this is only a showdown between the Kremlin clans, which will not affect the course of hostilities in any way, because the decision to start the war was not made by Shoigu, or any other general, namely Putin.

There is also a lot of debate now about whether the world recognizes Putin as president. But do not assume that something will change dramatically.

Countries that maintain stable relations with the Russian Federation, such as parts of Africa, Asia, Latin America, keep it further. They will continue their political, economic and other types of relations at the level at which it was before the inauguration.

As for the countries of the West, we have seen the ambivalence before, and it will remain. What is it about? Western countries do not and will not perceive Putin as the democratically elected president of Russia. However, he will be recognized as the state leader of the Russian Federation. If we talk about any negotiations or agreements, then there will be contacts with Putin because it is he who represents his country in the international arena.

Here we are talking not just about another country with a dictator at the head, like Iraq led by Saddam Hussein.

Russia is a state that has the second largest nuclear potential in the world. Here you can recall the times of the Cold War. When Western countries did not perceive the political situation in the USSR, but at the same time, they recognized the leadership of the state.

They were taking part in all the negotiations, signing the agreements, trading and the like.

We see the same thing now. We can recall the beginning of the war, 2022, when negotiations were held between the United States and Russia on the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons by Moscow. At that time, American officials participated in negotiations with their Russian colleagues. This approach to negotiations can continue in the future.

Putin's key problem is is a lack of contacts. Since the beginning of the full-scale war, most world leaders have ignored him. During this time, he had contact only with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

But Russia acted in a certain way in the international arena. Therefore, it will continue to do so in the future through representatives of the Kremlin.

If we talk about the end of the war in Ukraine and peace negotiations, we should not expect that Putin and Zelensky will personally participate in them. This process is also organized by their representatives. We have already seen this in the example of negotiations in Istanbul at the beginning of a full-scale invasion, or when signing agreements on the "grain corridor". Therefore, it is likely that Ukraine will decide the fate of the end of the war with Russia not at the presidential level, but through separate agreements between Kyiv, Moscow and the mediators.

Volodymyr Fesenko, unian.net