China Is Shouting At Lukashenka Now

A serious sign of discontent.

For the first time since the crisis on the border of Belarus with its neighbors, that is, since 2021, China has officially commented on the situation. Given the fact that Beijing seeks not to interfere in the conflicts taking place in the world, and also taking into account the sophistication of Eastern diplomacy (escaping direct "no"), this statement can be considered as a serious signal of dissatisfaction with the position of the Belarusian authorities, Valer Karbalevich writes for Radio Liberty.

The escalation of relations between Warsaw and Minsk, caused by the murder of a Polish soldier at the border by one of the migrants, naturally led to the fact that on June 22, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said: the possibility of closing the rest of the border crossings with Belarus is under consideration.

It can be assumed that the Polish leadership would have taken such a step a long time ago if the topic of closing the border was only a matter of Belarusian-Polish relations. But this conflict affects many third countries. Cargoes go through Belarus and Poland from east to west, to the EU states, and in the opposite direction.

The transit of goods is of particular importance for China. To better solve this problem, Beijing initiated a huge infrastructure project – the Belt and Road Initiative. Before the outbreak of Russia's war against Ukraine, 4% of Chinese trade with the European Union was carried out through the railway. Moreover, more than 80% of all rail traffic between the EU and China passed through Belarus.

The main transit takes place by sea. Recently, however, there have also been problems. After the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, there was a threat to navigation through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, Yemeni Houthis target the vessels there.

Transit through Ukraine is also impossible.

Now there are four checkpoints in Belarus with neighboring EU countries: two Lithuanian, one Latvian and one Polish. Moreover, almost four times more cargo passes through the latter than through the other three combined. And closing it can cause a transport collapse.

Therefore, it is quite natural that the problem of border crossings on the Belarusian-Polish border has gone at the international level. During his visit to China, Polish President Andrzej Duda raised this issue during talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Subsequently, the Polish president told reporters that "we talked in great detail and discussed this situation."

And Beijing reacted. After the talks, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said, “China hopes that both sides will treat each other with respect and resolve the issue through consultations to avoid escalating tensions.”

For the first time since the crisis on the border of Belarus with its neighbors (since 2021), the PRC officially commented on the situation. Given the fact that Beijing seeks not to interfere in the conflicts taking place in the world, as well as given the subtlety of Eastern diplomacy (not to say "no"), this statement can be considered as a serious signal of dissatisfaction with the position of the Belarusian authorities.

If the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the great power publicly says that "China hopes", then this, translated from diplomatic into ordinary language, means that the Chinese leadership has switched to shouting.

Against this background, the statement by Aliaksandr Lukashenka at a meeting with the Secretary of the Party Committee of Beijing University Hao Ping and representatives of Chinese universities on June 25 looks curious:

"And we agreed with Xi Jinping that if China needs, use Belarus to promote its interests in Europe... We are ready to provide you with all possible support in your interests when promoting them to the European Union. A lot has been done in this regard."

How can a country that finds itself isolated from European countries, in an acute conflict with the EU, and whose head is not recognized by European politicians, help China promote its interests in Europe? It seems that Lukashenka does not realize the comic nature of this situation.

Meanwhile, the problem at the Belarusian-Polish border was also discussed during the visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to Minsk. Which once again indicates that an attack on neighbors using migrants is taking place with the participation of Moscow. It can be assumed that the solution to the problem is possible only with the consent of the Kremlin.

After the talks with Lavrov, a statement was made by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Belarus Siarhei Aleinik:

“In these circumstances, the only way to de-escalate is through dialogue. If Poland is ready for this, at least in matters of border cooperation, which has been curtailed at the initiative of the Polish side and other European partners, then we are ready to discuss these topics."

The statement is peaceful. But Poland and the West in general are blamed for the escalation. The proposal for a dialogue is accompanied by aggressive rhetoric about who Minsk is going to negotiate with.

And most importantly, there is no action behind the words. More precisely, there are actions, but they are of the opposite nature. The militaristic fever continues, Russian nuclear weapons are located on the territory of Belarus, there are attacks on neighbors with the help of migrants, etc. If they want dialogue, they make some peace-loving gestures, and not vice versa.

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