Political Scientist About Border Blockade: Lukashenka Has Been Under Drip For Several Days

Warsaw felt the pain point of the regime.

The State Customs Committee of Belarus reported that from 03.00 on July 10, the Polish side does not accept freight vehicles travelling from our country through the Kazlovichy checkpoint. In early July, Poland blocked railway traffic for 33 hours at the customs clearance terminal in Małaszewicze on the border with Belarus. The Polish government decided to use this form of pressure on the Lukashenka regime, for which transit revenues make up a significant part of the budget.

How can the situation develop further? The Charter97.org website talked about this with political scientist Dzmitry Balkunets:

— I want to note that we also partially blocked traffic on the border, it was the 4th of July. We openly transmitted a signal to Lukashenka and conveyed a message from the Belarusian people. Today we can actually see that the Polish government has supported our demands. And we then clearly said: if Lukashenka does not release political prisoners and does not stop the migration war at the border, then the only checkpoint for trucks across the Belarusian-Polish border will be closed. Today it happened.

Lukashenka, apparently, is waiting for something or hoping for something, but he has no options. At least two items of the requirements must be fulfilled on his part, then the terminal will work again. And if he does not do this, then all points — completely and without exception — of rail freight communication between Belarus and the European Union will also be closed.

This decision has already been made and agreed with European countries, so Lukashenka has no options for retreat, only the release of all political prisoners and the end of the migration war on the border. Lukashenka's actions threaten the security of the European Union, so we expect that in the near future he will come to his senses and begin to act.

Now Lukashenka has become a threat to China, to Chinese logistics, and he is also well aware of this. There is nowhere to maneuver, in this situation he is to blame himself for what is happening at the border. I note that Poland takes all these actions solely in the interests of its own security.

— You said that Lukashenka has become a threat to China, and are there any signs of Beijing's pressure on Lukashenka on the issue of the crisis on the border?

— China will not put pressure as for this issue, it will smile and drink tea with him. I think this is enough to understand how Beijing will talk to him. Recently, Lukashenka met with the Chinese leader, then unexpectedly sent Ryzhenkov (the new Foreign Minister of Belarus — approx.) to China on a visit, apparently to do something. But Lukashenka is a weak link on this issue.

He really poses a threat to Chinese logistics, to the way that goods from China enter the European Union. This, of course, worries the Chinese side and may lead to the fact that Belarus will simply lose the opportunity to supply its goods to the Chinese market. If rail and road transit traffic is stopped, this will lead to the fact that Belarus will not be able to send goods to the East. Because empty railway containers are used to transport Belarusian goods to China.

I think that China may reconsider its strategy for working with Belarus, in particular — trade relations, some investment projects, and so on. The reason for this is Lukashenka. In this situation, I would like to warn again that his actions lead to the destruction of the "Belarusian economic miracle", which he is "building".

Lukashenka has already brought the situation to the point that the sky of Belarus was closed to airplanes. If his actions now lead to even worse consequences, I think it would be best for him to shoot himself.

— Is it visible from some indirect signs, behavior, Lukashenka's words that this is an extremely painful tool for him?

— Of course, you can see that he felt bad in Astana and lay under a drip for a couple of days. Then he came to his senses in his small homeland, drank some water from a well, seemed to come to his senses. Maybe now he will start to think correctly, he has already said in his speech that "everyone hates him."

The only correct way from Lukashenka's side is the release of political prisoners. Firstly, it will relieve tensions within the Belarusian society, a lot of people will be released. I believe that such actions on the part of Lukashenka can be completely justified, he has already said there that allegedly a humanist, let him show his humanity, perform some other actions if it will be easier for him.

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