Natallia Radzina: Senile Lukashenka Loses Control Over Belarus

The new establishment understands this.

Natallia Radzina, the Editor-in-Chief of Charter97.org, became a guest of the YouTube show by the famous Russian journalist Yevgeny Kiselyov.

One of the main topics of conversation was Lukashenka's trip to Putin's Valaam Island. The Belarusian journalist told what the two dictators could discuss:

— This is a war against Ukraine, in which Lukashenka participates most actively, these are, of course, economic issues, since Belarus today is extremely dependent on Russian subsidies, and we know that these subsidies have begun to decline, the economic situation in the country is deteriorating.

Putin and Lukashenka could discuss the topic of German citizen Rico Krieger, who was sentenced to death in Belarus and an attempt to exchange him for FSB agent Vadim Krasikov.

It is obvious that the crisis in relations between Belarus and Poland, the strengthening of EU sanctions against the Lukashenka regime were discussed. They could talk about the so-called migration crisis. In connection with it, Poland has now taken a very tough position and has begun to block the checkpoints for goods that follow from Belarus to the European Union. And China follows here, because most of these goods that go by rail, as well as transported by trucks, are Chinese goods.

The migration crisis, I think, did not arise at the initiative of Lukashenka, but was agreed with Putin. Therefore, Lukashenka went to solve this issue. To decide what to do with the fact that Chinese goods today with great difficulty pass the Belarusian-European border.

The Editor-in-Chief of the Charter97.org website draws attention to the photos from the meeting of Putin and Lukashenka published by the Russian media:

— We see that the dictator looks extremely bad. It is obvious that Lukashenka is either using steroids or hormones. He is unable to control his weight. Physically, Lukashenka looks very bad. Worse than ever.

The set of problems that hit Lukashenka in recent years directly affects his physical condition. He is not able to fix it today.

Is China betting on Lukashenka, as in the case of Orbán in Hungary and Vučić in Serbia? Natallia Radzina does not see Beijing's serious intentions towards Belarus:

— I think that China treats Lukashenka objectively. They understand that this is a vassal of the Kremlin, nothing more. China is interested in Belarus exclusively as a territory for the transit of goods to Europe. Because this is the only land route through which Chinese goods go to the European Union today. This cannot be done through Ukraine, which is why Belarus has become the only road, part of this new Silk Road. Therefore, political stability is extremely important for China.

Beijing relied on this stability under Lukashenka until 2020, various Belarusian-Chinese economic projects were developing, including the construction of the Great Stone industrial park near Minsk, where there were enterprises that were supposed to produce high-tech products for the EU. Chinese-related loans were also issued in quite a large number, enterprises were built on the territory of Belarus, such as the Belji plant for assembling cars, there were Belarusian-Chinese projects at the Dobrush Paper Mill, at the Svetlahorsk Pulp and Cardboard Plant, and a battery plant was built in Brest.

But all these projects have sunk into oblivion and almost all have failed, because cars from the Belji plant (at least before the imposition of sanctions) were not massively sold, Belarusians preferred to drive Western foreign cars, the production turned out to be dirty and terribly harmful to the environment, caused protests by local residents both in Brest and in Svetlahorsk, and the Great Stone industrial park today stands still and practically does not work, because after 2020 Belarus finally spoiled relations with the West and, accordingly, there was no European market for Chinese goods produced in this industrial park. Therefore, now all that China is interested in is the free passage of goods through the territory of Belarus to the European Union, but there are new problems.

The Belarusian journalist spoke about Poland's pressure on the Lukashenka regime, which greatly worries China:

— The transit role of Belarus is disappearing. And therefore, I think that the Poles have now found a very good lever of pressure on the Lukashenka regime. The European Union needs to talk with China about what tough conditions can be set for Lukashenka so that Chinese goods can freely go to the European Union.

Of course, it is also important to stop attacks on the borders, and to extradite the murderer of the Polish border guard, and to release Polish journalist Andrzej Poczobut. But more needs to be demanded: the release of all political prisoners. Because there are a huge number of them in prisons today, political terror in the country has not stopped for four years, people have been tortured, a huge number of political prisoners are in critical condition, there are a lot of cancer patients, a lot of elderly people in prisons.

According to various estimates, from 6 to 8 prisoners of conscience died in our prisons. We understand that, unfortunately, these are not the last deaths in prison. It's very important to use the lever of blocking the transit of goods through the territory of Belarus for the dictatorship to make concessions and begin to release people from prisons.

Yevgeny Kiselyov separately touched upon the topic of German citizen Krieger sentenced to death in Belarus. Natallia Radzina believes that his arrest is an operation planned by the Belarusian and Russian special services:

— Putin is an officer of the special services, it is important for him not to surrender his own and to release FSB officer Vadim Krasikov from Germany.

Lukashenka proved useful to him again and offered his services. Therefore, I am convinced that this arrest of a German citizen is a planned operation of Belarusian and Russian special services. He was arrested solely to subsequently exchange him for Krasikov.

I think that now there are negotiations with Germany on the exchange of this unfortunate guy for a killer from the FSB. Lukashenka is strongly involved in this, here he rendered a service to his master Putin.

Why did Lukashenka decide to withdraw troops from the border with Ukraine? Natallia Radzina raises a different question: Were there any Belarusian troops on the Ukrainian border:

— I have a feeling of a performance that was specially acted out. As far as we know, there were no active actions on the border with Belarus from the Ukrainian side.

Yes, there is part of the troops, part of the territorial defence, fortifications, everything is the same as it was before, that is. From the Belarusian side, as far as I know, there was simply a regular check of the combat readiness of those units of the troops that are always located there. There are also units of the Special Operations Forces, they could increase their number, but only slightly.

Lukashenka raised the hysteria personally. I understand that it was necessary to raise it to some degree in negotiations with the West, that the Ukrainians are allegedly trying to attack us, so we will attack them now. It is quite clear that Lukashenka does not have any resources to attack Ukraine today. Moreover, Russia is also not preparing any offensive grouping on Belarusian territory today.

It seems to me that it was some kind of performance, an attempt to organize negotiations. Probably, they passed, judging by the fact that then Lukashenka initiated everything.

We cannot say what they talked about with the Ukrainians (probably with the mediation of the West, the United States), but it is obvious that Lukashenka is now looking for any options to improve relations with the West. I see that there are signals from his side.

The Belarusian journalist dwells in detail on the personnel changes that Lukashenka recently made:

— There was a change of generations in power. Younger people of a different level are coming. Please note that recently the head of Lukashenka's administration was Dzmitry Krutoi, the former ambassador of Belarus to Russia, he is 43 years old. Natallia Petkevich, she is 51, returned to the post of Deputy Head of Lukashenka's administration. She was once Lukashenka's speaker, then she was deputy head of the administration. She actively interacted with the West, in particular with the United States, to lift sanctions in exchange for the release of political prisoners.

Then she worked as Lukashenka's assistant for a long time, and in the end Petkevich disappeared from power, married the permanent representative of Belarus to the UN Valiantsin Rybakou. From 2018 to 2024, we didn't hear anything about her, but we knew she lived in New York. Now she's back. I think that Petkevich is one of the strongest figures who will negotiate with the West on behalf of Lukashenka.

Maksim Ryzhenkou is the new Minister of Foreign Affairs. 53 years old, career diplomat, worked in the embassies of Belarus in Israel, Poland, in the departments for relations with the OSCE, with the Council of Europe, the Department of America in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Belarus. I think that there will be attempts to agree on something now, because it is quite clear that the situation of isolation into which Lukashenka has driven the country only harms. Putin cannot finance Belarus to the extent the country needs it. I see that Putin is also running out of money, a huge amount of money is spent on the war today. But he is no longer able to support all the satellites that he has risen around the world during the years of his reign.

Lukashenka is too senile, he is unable to lead Belarus today. He doesn't control anything at all. I talked to Ukrainians yesterday, they say: "We are well aware that Lukashenka is nobody." If Putin wants, there will be an attack from the territory of Belarus, if he does not want — there won't be. What to talk to Lukashenka about?

There is a change of generations, the Belarusian establishment is now thinking that independent Belarus is much more profitable for them than the subsidized, absolutely pro-Russian one that was under Lukashenka.

By the way, I drew attention to the interview of Vitaly Portnikov, which he gave for the 30th anniversary of the Lukashenka regime on Radio Liberty. Portnikov is absolutely convinced that Lukashenka is an agent of the Russian special services, that he was an agent of the KGB of the USSR until 1991, and then became an agent of the Lubyanka. And he came to power solely as an agent of the Russian special services and keeps doing it.

Natallia Radzina urges not to lose hope, because the situation may change at any time:

— The real leaders of the Belarusian opposition are in prison today. These people will walk free, they will be the real elite of the new Belarus. As for us, those in emigration, our task today is to do everything possible to help the relatives, families of these people, to do everything to release them. To do this, international activities should be carried out to lobby for sanctions against the Lukashenka regime, information work, the work of independent media on matters of Belarus is extremely important, human rights work is to support political prisoners and their families, to help refugees, there are quite a lot of them today, they need help.

There is no need to treat the Kremlin regime as a constant. "You see, they are unchanged, they will always exist, they are strong and their resources are endless." That's not true. Everything is changing. Yes, it's a difficult time. Yes, many people have lost hope. Yes, it seems that Ukraine is losing. This is all wrong.

Let's look at the situation in the United States, where Kamala Harris came, and Trump, through Pompeo, offers a real scenario for resolving the situation. I mean the latest plan for Ukraine. We understand that there is hope, everything can change.

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