Lukashenka Didn't Expect This

The danger came out of the blue.

With the outbreak of Russia's war against Ukraine, Belarus was involved in this adventure. Russian troops advanced on Kyiv from the Homel region. Russian military aircraft took off from the territory of Belarus, and the Russian Federation shelled various objects in Ukraine.

However, in April 2022, the Russians were forced to withdraw their troops from Kyiv. Since October 2022, shelling of Ukraine from the Belarusian territory has ceased. After a while, according to various estimates, only about 1,000-2,000 Russian soldiers remained in Belarus.

This situation gave the Belarusian leadership a reason to dissociate themselves from the war in a certain way. An appropriate propaganda image was specially created. Like, Belarus is not involved in the war. Although the enemies seek to drag the country into war, thanks to the 'wise' policy of Aliaksandr Lukashenka, Belarus remains an island of peace, tranquility, and security.

The thesis that Lukashenka is the guarantor of peace is going to be made the main PR slogan during the upcoming presidential election campaign.

But something's gone wrong lately. Information began to appear that some missiles and drones that Russia launches against Ukraine fly through the airspace of Belarus. For example, according to the Ukrainian monitoring project war monitor, on September 4, the Kinzhal Russian hypersonic missile, which hit Lviv (four people were killed), flew about 100 kilometers over the territory of the Brahin and Naroulia districts of the Homel region.

Then contradictory information about drones began to appear. On August 10, Lukashenka said that Ukrainian air targets appeared over the territory of Belarus, some of which were shot down. The Ukrainian side denied this. According to the Belaruski Hayun monitoring group, no drones were found coming from the territory of Ukraine, as there were no missile launches from Belarusian aircraft and helicopters.

Simultaneously, since mid-July, Russian drones began to appear regularly in the airspace of Belarus. The fact that the arrival of these drones here was not agreed with the Belarusian military is evidenced by the fact that the Belarusian aviation began to destroy them. The first time was on August 29. At first, the Belarusian authorities did not comment on this.

But what happened on the night of September 4-5 could not be hidden. As many as 8 Russian "Shaheds" flew to the territory of Belarus. Two of them were shot down: the wreckage fell on Homel, resulting in a fire.

The Ministry of Defence was forced to somehow comment on this incident. It turned out quite clumsy. Like, some drones violated the airspace of Belarus and were shot down. Whose drones are these? Where did they come from? No answer.

When allegedly Ukrainian drones flew in early August, there was a lot of information and diplomatic clamour. Statements were made by Lukashenka, the Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, propagandists, and additional troops were moved to the Ukrainian border. If a year ago a Polish helicopter allegedly crossed the airspace of Belarus, then a note of protest was declared to Poland.

And now the wreckage of a drone falls on the second largest city in Belarus (Homel), and the reaction is incomprehensible. The authorities hide in every possible way that we are talking about Russian "Shaheds".

It is interesting to read how propagandist Aliaksandr Shpakovuski declares the flight of these Russian drones to be a Ukrainian provocation, and the Secretary of State of the "Union State" Dmitry Mezentsev calls it a provocation of the United States. It turns out that the Americans control Russian drones?

The situation is unpleasant for the Belarusian authorities for two reasons. First, the ideological pre-election construct is collapsing, that Belarus allegedly does not participate in the war, and Lukashenka is the guarantor of peace.

Drones over the territory of Belarus began to appear regularly and, apparently, the process is increasing. And these are not harmless drones of some amateurs. We are talking about rather large military "Shaheds", as can be assumed, loaded with explosives and other military equipment. We have to periodically lift airplanes into the sky, destroy these air targets. So, the war came here, and Lukashenka cannot guarantee anything.

Second feature. The danger came out of the blue – from Russia. So many shouts about threats from NATO, Poland, Lithuania, Ukraine. They say that troops are concentrated there, they are preparing to attack peaceful Belarus. And now it turns out that the "Shahed" came from an ally. The main ally as the main threat! And how did they come to such a life?

Therefore, Lukashenka is silent, does not comment on this situation with drones. Perhaps he himself does not fully understand what's going on.

Valer Karbalevich, Radio Liberty

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