Full-Scale War Breaking Out Between Rwanda, Congo

The conflict may involve many participants from abroad.

On Sunday, 26 January, the UN Security Council met to discuss the situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The country, which 20 years ago found itself at the centre of the bloodiest armed conflict of this century (dubbed the Great African - or otherwise Second Congolese - War) is now back on the brink of major bloodshed. It has severed diplomatic relations with neighbouring Rwanda, which supports rebel Tutsi militias that have been fighting successfully against the DRC's central government. There is a possibility that the two countries will soon be fighting directly, NG writes.

In the 1990s, the world learnt about the existence of the country of Rwanda because of the genocide committed by representatives of the local Hutu ethnic group against the Tutsi ethnic group.

Then, when the genocide ended and the Tutsis returned to power, having won the bloody civil war, Europe and America somehow lost interest in the events related to this country. It can be said that the world ‘watched’ the Great African War, which, according to various estimates, took up to 6 million lives. It broke out because the confrontation between Hutus and Tutsis spread to the neighbouring DRC and involved a significant number of states on the continent. Now there is a possibility that those events may be repeated.

According to various media reports, Rwandan troops have concentrated on the border with the Congolese and are ready to invade their neighbouring country. They are allegedly already rushing to support the Tutsi rebels of the March 23 Movement (M23) to take one of the important cities of the DRC, Goma, the capital of North Kivu province.

Fighting is already taking place on the outskirts of the city. According to the British press, a number of senior Rwandan generals are in Gisenye. This is the 250,000th city in Rwanda. It is not just next to Goma, which has a population of almost 700,000, but is practically adjacent to it. Therefore, the Rwandans could start the battle for this Congolese city as quickly and quietly as possible. However, the advance of the M23 rebels was not so unexpected. Shortly before the weekend's events, they had captured the nearby strategically important towns of Minova and Sake. As a result, important communications for the Congolese army have been cut: it simply cannot be supplied with the resources it needs for defence and the most basic necessities.

If the city is taken, it will not be the first time: the M23 rebels already took Goma in 2012, but retreated hastily due to international pressure. The DRC leadership wants it now as well. The efforts of the government army are clearly not enough to repel Tutsi attacks. The DRC's central authorities rely on local militias (the so-called Wazalendo - ‘patriots’ in Swahili) and foreign militias. The latter consist of private military companies (the most famous of which is the PMC Agemira, staffed by retired French military personnel) and troops from the East African Community (EAC) countries. The problem for the authorities is that the European PMCs are more concerned with protecting the facilities of Western companies operating in this extremely mineral-rich country. And the EAC includes Rwanda, which can influence the decisions of the organisation, as well as Burundi, where Tutsis also live. The media reported that by June last year there were about 4,000 Rwandan military permanently stationed on the DRC territory. They allegedly operate in close contact with the M23. Finally, there are UN peacekeepers in the country. Their number in the DRC is up to 14 thousand people. They have already become victims of fighting. As of Saturday, 13 UN peacekeepers were killed in Goma. Nine of them were from South Africa, three from Malawi, one from Uruguay. Among other things, the emergency convening of the Security Council is connected with this.

It is not excluded that in case of success the Rwandans will want to take the town of Bukavu: it is located on the southern coast of Lake Kivu. Meanwhile, the inhabitants of Goma are already facing problems with the lack of water and electricity supplies. A large number of refugees are concentrated there. If the capture of the town turns into a large-scale massacre, it will, as has happened many times before, unleash a spiral of violence that will involve many countries in Africa and beyond.

DRC President Felix Tshisekedi accused Rwandan President Paul Kagame of an elaborate aggression aimed at seizing the resource-rich province. Negotiations arranged thanks to US efforts were due to take place between the two in December. But Kagame refused. At the same time, the Rwandan leader has never admitted that his country supports M23. Overall, Kagame has managed to maintain a good image on the world stage. His authoritarian methods and suppression of the opposition are relatively rarely criticised. Moreover, Rwanda, with its high economic growth rates over the years, relatively low levels of corruption, and good ties with the West, is often presented as a rare African example of successful development. Finally, Kagame is associated with the successful ending of the Rwandan genocide in 1994. In the 30 years that he has ruled the country in various positions, he has managed to maintain inter-ethnic peace there. However, at the cost of a difficult relationship with the DRC.

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