'Fico Will Completly Miss'

How Slovakia protests against the pro-Russian prime minister.

Protests began in Slovakia over the trip of Prime Minister Robert Fico to Moscow. How is the situation developing? Is there a danger for the pro-Russian head of government of Slovakia?

Charter97.org spoke about this with Grigorij Mesežnikov, a Slovak political scientist and the President of the Institute for Public Affairs (IVO Bratislava).

— While two rallies were held, the first was on December 23, the second was on January 3, and this week, on January 10, rallies are also planned in other cities of Slovakia. In Bratislava, these rallies take place on one of the city's main squares, Freedom Square, just in front of the government building.

4,000 people attended the second rally. I think the number of participants will grow. These rallies are organized by the civil initiative "Peace for Ukraine". This is an initiative dealing with humanitarian aid, its representatives travel to Ukraine, bring humanitarian aid there, and meet with Ukrainians. That is, it is already a fairly well-known organization.

As for the general mood in Slovakia, the opposition parties sharply criticize the government, especially Robert Fico, for his statements, actions, the same trip to Moscow. All his actions are called betrayal, surrender of the country to a bloody dictator, aggressor, departure from the pro-Western line in foreign policy. That is, the opposition part of society reacts to this quite sharply and actively.

If we talk about the voters of the current government coalition, especially SMER, the main government party, then so far, frankly speaking, I have not noticed that someone actively supported Fico, and critics, too, of course, are not. I think that they probably agree with Fico in assessing events in the world, because Robert Fico has been known as a pro-Russian politician for a long time, and most of his voters, in fact, agree with this.

Analyzing how this will affect the overall situation in terms of the balance of power in the parliament and some progress, for example, on the political scene, I think that this can all be added to the criticism that the government is now facing in social and economic issues. So this is a convenient occasion for the opposition (it may sound a little cynical), because the opposition from the very beginning criticizes the government for its actions both in the social and economic field and in the field of political democracy.

These demonstrations, which, apparently, will continue, can become, if not a trigger, then at least strengthen the positions of the opposition parties. If no changes occur (and I don't think they will), these topics will overlap. That is, these are foreign policy issues, betrayal of the Western course, cooperation with Russia, and so on — all this will be combined with criticism of the government's policy in other areas.

— In his election campaign, Fico promised cheap gas to the Slovaks. Now prices will clearly go up. How much will this affect the position of the Slovak Prime Minister?

— In general, everything that affects the financial situation of citizens, in general, is of great importance, especially in the electoral segment that gravitates towards parties of this type that are now in the government. But I must say that the situation still does not look so dramatic that prices sharply increased. So far, it has been decided that in 2025, gas and electricity prices, that is, everything related to energy issues, will be frozen at the government's request by the regulator, which deals with pricing for such supplies.

In fact, Slovakia still has enough gas reserves, that is, soon, I think gas prices will not increase. They, of course, may rise as a result of some purchases from alternative sources, but here not only gas prices may increase. In Slovakia, three months ago, a package of economic financial consolidation was approved, where taxes on certain products and goods were increased, so this year, in general, prices for many consumer goods, for products, will increase. This will all affect the financial situation of citizens.

It is worth noting here that Fico, of course, is a great master of populism, he even called himself a world champion in populism. Most likely, if gas prices really begin to rise, he will blame the opposition, Ukraine, Zelensky personally, the European Union and even the West as a whole, that it was all of them, that they did not help Slovakia. Fico will say that he tried to solve the issue, including when he went to Moscow to meet with Putin. So here, on his part, there is a certain lever on how to influence the mood of his voters. I think, unfortunately, that a significant part of its electorate will accept this argument.

— Fico threatened Ukrainian refugees that he would cut off social benefits. What else can the head of government of Slovakia do?

— He promised that Slovakia would allegedly stop supplying electricity to Ukraine, and although it is theoretically impossible to exclude this, it will, of course, be associated with serious consequences. Now it is difficult to say whether Fico will go for it in the end or not, because, firstly, Slovakia supplies electricity to Ukraine not only through production at state power plants, there are also private companies that do this. That is, it is unclear how he will do all this, how the government will interfere in private business in general, because contracts have already been signed.

And yet, I think this is the most important, such a decision would contradict European rules. That is, Fico, if he tries to block the supply of electricity to Ukraine, I think he may run into an additional conflict with the European Union, and he would hardly want this. So here it seems to me that he will not take the most radical measures. But I repeat, this cannot be completely ruled out

As for the reduction of assistance to refugees, here, I think, it is more a moral issue. Again, how is he going to do it? Here, he can also come into conflict with the European Union and finally become an immoral outcast.

By the way, returning to the possible cessation of electricity supplies for Ukraine, it is worth noting that Poland and Romania have already stated that they will support Ukraine in this case. That is, here, as they say, Fico will completely miss because it will reduce the income to the state budget. Taxes also come from the state-owned company, so there will be certain difficulties. Populist Fico can count money.

It is difficult to say what else Fico can do, and how he can still harm Ukraine. He can, for example, push some decisions at the level of the European Union that will not be in favor of Ukraine. Or vice versa, block decisions that will be in favor of Ukraine. Also, he was noticed doing this long time ago.

Although Fico was not as radical as Viktor Orban before, he has already overtaken Orban with his behavior in the past few weeks, including a trip to Moscow. Fico is already perceived as a Trojan horse of Russia in Central Europe and the European Union.

You can support the website Charter97.org

MULTI-CURRENCY ACCOUNT FOR ASSISTANCE:

Bank's name: Bank Millennium S.A.
Address: ul. Stanislawa Zaryna, 2A, 02-593, Warszawa
IBAN: PL97116022020000000216711123
SWIFT: BIGBPLPW
Name of the account holder: Fundacja “KARTA ‘97”
Purpose/title of payment: Donation for statuary aims

You can contact us by the e-mail charter97@gmail.com