Political Analyst: Lukashenko Has Already Been Written Off For Retirement
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Anatoly Kotov
The dictator has only two choices.
Today, May 16, negotiations between Ukraine and Russia may be held in Istanbul. What do they mean for Lukashenko?
The site Charter97.org talked to Belarusian political analyst Anatoly Kotov about it:
- Full-scale negotiations have been disrupted by the Russian side. Putin was expected in Istanbul, but instead of him came Medinsky, who decides nothing. If Europe and the United States fulfill their ultimatum and impose really tough sanctions, as well as increase aid to Ukraine, the maneuvering field for Lukashenko will be narrowed to a minimum.
Russia will be forced to more rigidly delineate its zone of influence, as well as Belarus in it. It is not very good to maneuver between two fires now, and in case of escalation it will not be possible at all.
Either it will be necessary to make a sharp rapprochement with the West, which is hardly possible, or to end up in Russia. The second option does not bode well for Lukashenko. He has already been retired and written off there.
- Western media have recently written a lot about the problems in the Russian economy. Can they spread to the Belarusian regime?
- Problems in the Russian economy have been written about for a long time. And in the Belarusian economy too. However, states are extremely complex corporations, and they go bankrupt for a long time. Especially if the people do not protest. North Korea has been in a systemic crisis for a long time, and it exists. Until the moment comes when people say "no" to their brutal state, nothing will happen. In this respect, Russia has a large margin of safety.
Really tough sanctions and secondary sanctions can shake up the situation even more. Similarly problematic will be the return to civilian rails. The Belarusian economy is intentionally tied to the Russian economy. The worse it is in Russia, the worse it is in Belarus.
- What main dangers do you see for the Belarusian regime in the near future?
- The main danger is the Kremlin's policy towards Belarus and the regime. It is extremely likely that Moscow will increase pressure on Lukashenko, given the failures on the peace or military track in Ukraine.
Analogously, Minsk fears a sharp change in the situation: peace or escalation of war. The first would mean a reduction in military spending, which feeds what's left of the Belarusian economy. The second would mean even greater isolation and the end of dreams of getting out from under sanctions.
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