Lukashenko Frightened By Russian Gas

Russia can ditch a dictator.

On Saturday, Alexander Lukashenko decided to inspect how things are going in Belarus with the production and, most importantly, the use of wood pellets. And not only because the Belarusian land is abundant with pellets, but there is nowhere to use them. The most important thing is that pellets should replace cheap Russian gas. Which, according to Lukashenko, may suddenly run out.

The idea to make Belarus a great pellet power appeared to Lukashenko in the late 10s, when it became clear that something went wrong with woodworking. It consisted in selling pellets to Europe and getting rich. Under this project, 67 pellet production facilities were built in Belarus with an installed capacity of almost 900 thousand tons of pellets per year.

The total cost of the project was not disclosed by the authorities. Perhaps, because they could not calculate it themselves. But the construction of the first 13 production facilities cost almost 150 million rubles. In 2021, they even managed to supply 570 thousand tons of Belarusian pellets to Europe. But then, something went wrong.

"Europe was buying it all at certain prices, now they have shot themselves in the foot and are not buying it," Lukashenko said on Saturday.

Belarus was left with pellets, but without markets. On the friendly Russian market, even its own pellets are superfluous. China was not delighted with the prospects of Belarusian pellet exports either. With an annual demand of 30 million tons of pellets, China's own production capacity amounts to 35 million tons. And it turned out to be expensive to transport pellets to such a distance. And promising African markets do not need Belarusian pellets due to some natural climatic conditions of the African continent.

In 2022, the production of Belarusian pellets fell to 170 thousand tons. But, as it turned out, even these 170 thousand tons had nowhere to go. As a result, most of the production facilities had to be mothballed, and employees were sent on indefinite leave. Last year Belarusian enterprises produced only 72 thousand tons of pellets.

Because out of all the variety of markets Belarusian pellets remained mainly domestic. And the domestic market is not a rubber market. Last year, 43 thousand tons of pellets were sold in Belarus. This year they hope to sell 80 thousand.

"Somewhere we'll reach about 200 thousand tons by the year 27," promised Minister of Forestry Alexander Kulik.

That is, even the optimists from the Belarusian government do not promise to dispose of 900 thousand tons of pellets. It is true that they promise 200 thousand tons. But this is provided that everything will be fine. Because the replacement of heating boilers for those suitable for pellets is expensive.

Whoever throws the first one is the first one

But Lukashenko said that there is no need to save money on pellets. Because it is necessary to think about the future. Because it suddenly turned out that cheap Russian gas in Belarus may suddenly run out.

"Our children may not have gas. Even with us, we may not have cheap gas," said Lukashenko.

Why cheap Russian gas in Belarus may suddenly run out, Lukashenko did not explain. And there are no obvious reasons for that now. Now there is a contract, under which Belarus buys gas at $128.5 per 1000 cubic meters.

In truth, at the end of the year, this contract expires and a new one will have to be signed. But so far, the Belarusian authorities have promised that the new contract will be even cheaper than the current one.

But, obviously, the current life realities are somewhat at odds with these promises. One should think that Lukashenko knows something that he is shy to tell us directly. And in fact, there are only two options here. Either Russia is going to dump Lukashenko, or Lukashenko is going to dump Russia. Either way, someone is bound to dump someone.

Andrei Bronishevsky, planbmedia.io

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