A New Phase Of War

The most brutal raids will be in the last days of the war.

Checked out the raid statistics on the Ukrainian war. A hundred drones back and forth in both directions, that's more of a minimum. It can be as low as two or three hundred. Taking into account the situation on the ground, the Russian offensive is underway there, but without much success so far (and where would they come from), the hostilities are moving into a phase that was called the "War of the Cities" in the Iran-Iraq war. Mutual raids, strikes with missiles of different types of basing on large population centers.

But those were the 80s. Iraq used airplanes, Iran mostly missiles. Weapons were expensive, difficult to use. Things have changed a lot now. Relatively cheap and uncomplicated (relatively) in production drones that do not require special factories can be produced and sent to the enemy - in clouds, or, as it is fashionable to say nowadays, in swarms. It is seriously written that a thousand a day is already quite realistic. No air defense system can digest such a quantity. The Russians are still using missiles, but not so many - the product is not cheap.

The question now is, how long will this phase last? The front line is more or less stable. The Russians are making progress in some places, but it's still quite microscopic. If we recall the "War of the Cities", Iran and Iraq exchanged blows for three years until they concluded a truce. In this conflict, there is no point in talking about timelines, and no predictions on them have come true, but the fact is that there will be raids until the last day of fighting. The most brutal raids will be in the last days of the war.

Sergei Auslender, Telegram

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