The US Air Force Has Begun Calculating Scenarios For Air Battles With Russia Over Europe

A potential conflict between NATO and Russia would be quite different from a war in Ukraine.

A fresh Rand Corporation analysis report commissioned by the U.S. Air Force forecasts the course of a possible military conflict between NATO and Russia. According to the analysts' conclusions, the North Atlantic Alliance will have a decisive air advantage, which could play a key role in the outcome of a hypothetical confrontation, reports The Moscow Times.

The authors of the study emphasize that a potential conflict between NATO and Russia would be significantly different from the war in Ukraine. "First, and perhaps most importantly, NATO's air superiority would likely disrupt the positional stagnation that characterizes current ground operations in a Russia-Ukraine war," the report says.

Separate attention is paid in the document to the lessons that the United States and its allies have learned from the Ukraine conflict over the past three years. Among them is the lagging of NATO countries in the use of small unmanned aerial vehicles and electronic warfare technologies, which have become crucial in the fighting between Russia and Ukraine. In addition, experts note serious Western vulnerabilities related to the inability of NATO's defense industry to produce sufficient munitions, especially compared to Russian capabilities. However, despite these difficulties, the Alliance retains a tangible advantage in strike power, the Rand report emphasizes.

According to the scenarios modeled by the analysts, in case Russia attacks a NATO country and lodges territorial claims, hostilities would quickly move into an acute phase. In response, the U.S. and allied forces would launch a counteroffensive to regain lost territory. In the first days, Russia will likely be able to strike NATO forces, but then, as the report stresses, "the Alliance will establish airspace dominance over Eastern Europe."

Neutralization of the Russian air defense system, according to Rand experts, will open the way for active reconnaissance and pinpoint strikes. NATO aircraft will be able to track enemy movements, identify weaknesses and launch massive strikes on command posts, logistics centers and maneuverable combat units. All this, analysts believe, will allow NATO to seize the initiative in a short time.

At the same time, the authors of the report warn of the possibility of uncontrolled escalation. "A conflict of this intensity could well escalate into a nuclear war, especially if Russian troops suffer unacceptable losses or NATO's actions are perceived as a threat to the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation," the document emphasizes.

The report deliberately did not consider scenarios involving the use of nuclear weapons. The study focuses solely on the dynamics of war with the use of conventional means of destruction. Rand specifies that the modeling took place amid growing concern within NATO about the bloc's readiness for a possible conflict. The alliance's intelligence services have repeatedly warned: the Kremlin could launch a military attack on one of the NATO countries within the next five years.

In conclusion, the authors emphasize: NATO's potential for offensive operations in a conflict with Russia is significantly higher than that of both sides in the current war in Ukraine. This, according to Rand analysts, could be a determining factor in a possible confrontation.

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