Russia On The Brink Of Economic Crisis
1- 3.05.2025, 17:50
- 5,760
Ukrainian intelligence forecast.
The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine predicts that the Russian Federation is on the verge of an economic crisis.
The intelligence service noted that next week the Russian State Duma will consider a government bill to revise the federal budget figures. The main reason for such urgent action is the imbalance of the revenue and expenditure parts of the budget.
In particular, the intensification of negative trends in the Russian economy is the result of a significant excess of expenditures over revenues. First of all, because of the need to finance the war against Ukraine.
- Due to the imbalance, the Russian government is forced to revise the federal budget for 2025 in the direction of increasing its deficit by 250% (from 12 to 42 billion U.S. dollars). At the same time, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation declares the unchanged projected GDP growth rate - at the level of 2.5%, explaining its logic by the expected "increase in non-oil and gas revenues," - the report says.
- As explained in the SVRU, this actually means an unprecedented increase in tax pressure on business in the history of modern Russia. Thus, to normalize the situation in the economy, the Russian government has planned to increase revenues from personal income tax by 180%, corporate income tax by 110%, and value-added tax by 17%. And this is despite the fact that up to 30% of small and medium-sized businesses in Russia are already on the verge of bankruptcy. By the end of 2025, this figure is projected to increase to 50%.
- According to the statement of Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, "the priorities of the Russian budget remain unchanged.... All national development goals will be met regardless of external conditions and factors...". However, the finance minister glosses over the fact that the revenue part of the Russian budget depends on Russian oil exports by more than 30%. For the first quarter of 2025, urals oil has significantly lost in price," Intelligence.
In particular, today the purchases of Russian oil in the ports of Primorsk and Novorossiysk fluctuate at the level of 47-49 dollars per barrel, while the budget included the cost at the level of 69.7 dollars per barrel. Thus, the drop in Russia's oil and gas revenues in annual terms may amount to 30%, or $30-40 billion, which is actually equal to the deficit of the Russian budget for this year.
- In the context of manipulation of official statistics, the situation with the inflation rate is similar. The Russian government lays down an indicator at the level of 7.6 percent, while according to our estimates, even today the real inflation in Russia exceeds 20 percent," the Ukrainian intelligence summarized.
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