ISW: The AFU Can Force Putin To The Negotiating Table

But there's a nuance.

Western military aid for Ukraine, especially from the United States, remains key. It is with it that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be able to achieve decisive successes on the frontline and force Russian dictator Vladimir Putin to reconsider his theory of victory. This is according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

It is noted that cutting U.S. military aid to Ukraine will neither lead to a sustainable peace in the country nor cause Putin to reconsider his theory of victory.

According to analysts, the Kremlin chief's theory of victory is that the Russian army can sustain a slow, gradual advance on the battlefield longer than Ukrainian forces can defend themselves and longer than the West is willing to support Ukraine.

"The Institute for the Study of War continues to believe that Western military assistance - especially that which only the United States can provide quickly and on a large scale - remains key to enabling Ukrainian forces to make decisive gains on the front lines and forcing Putin to rethink his theory of victory," the report said.

The ISW also notes that successes on the battlefield that change Putin's calculations would force Russia to move toward constructive negotiations to secure a peaceful resolution to the war.

"At the same time, cutting U.S. aid to Ukraine carries the risk of giving Russia an even greater advantage on the front. It could also embolden Putin to continue the war, reinforcing his belief that Russian Federation is capable of conquering Ukraine. And this runs counter to U.S. President Donald Trump's stated goal of securing a lasting peace in Ukraine," the analysts concluded.

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