Israel's Attack On Iran In Putin's Perception Is Also An Attack On Russia

The "honeymoon" in relations between the Kremlin and the White House is coming to an end.

That Iran would inevitably come under Israeli strikes was predictable: Iran was too obviously on its way to developing nuclear weapons, which was a red line for both Israel and the US, regardless of who sits in the White House. I won't speculate on the ultimate consequences for Iran of the Israeli strikes, but they will definitely have a direct impact on the war in Ukraine and the relationship between Trump and Putin.

It will probably not be until decades from now that we learn from declassified U.S. archives whether Israel's strikes on Iran were prepared in conjunction with the United States. Despite the fact that literally from the first days of Trump's presidency, the American press has been full of rumors from "knowledgeable" sources that Trump is extremely unhappy with Netanyahu's stance, it cannot be ruled out that this was all just a smoke screen.

In reality, we see that the US is not directly involved in strikes against Iran and is carefully avoiding them, making it difficult for Iran to carry out its threats to hit numerous US military facilities in the Persian Gulf and the oil infrastructure of US allies in the region. Such Iranian strikes would be perceived as unprovoked aggression, which would completely unleash Trump to conduct virtually any U.S. military operation against Iran on any scale. Iran is unlikely to be interested in such an outcome.

Thereby, Iran's hands are effectively tied and it is unlikely to go into conflict with the US, and thus will be forced to limit itself to launching missile and sachet strikes against Israel, which, like last time, are unlikely to do it any significant damage. Although it looks like a classic good cop (US) and bad cop (Israel) divorce of Iran, I rather believe that this was not the intention, and Netanyahu was simply skillfully using the short-sighted Trump for his own purposes.

What is obvious, however, is how paranoid Putin will take the bombing of Iran. He will be convinced that the US and Israel have been preparing this operation for a long time, and that all US attempts to negotiate with Iran were nothing more than a bluff. It turns out that Trump was also bluffing with Putin when he asked the Kremlin-dweller to influence Iran in his recent conversation with him. Putin was already probably preparing to play his favorite role as a useless moderator, interested not in achieving a result but in endlessly dragging out the process as he was no longer needed.

As a result, we can expect a deterioration in Putin's attitude toward Trump, whom, until now, Putin has clearly perceived as a convenient fool. Russia's negotiating position on Ukraine is likely to become even tougher due to the Kremlin's distrust of any of Trump's promises (although, admittedly, Trump's promises, like Putin's, are worthless as it is).

Putin is particularly uncomfortable in the current situation: his important military ally, with whom he even signed an agreement on some kind of strategic partnership, is under attack, and he can't help him in any way. Formally, the U.S. is not involved in the attack on Iran, but Putin will not dare to help Iran to put pressure on Israel, because it would mean a direct conflict with the ruling Republicans in the U.S., and in fact, there is nothing to do - there is no Assad in Syria bordering Israel, and Hezbollah, which Russia generously supplied with weapons, is no longer a threat to Israel.

In addition, Israel's missile attack is also a clear demonstration of how limited Russia's military capabilities in the air are and how inefficient and archaic its military technology is: Israel has achieved more military success overnight than Russia's fourth year of missile and air strikes on Ukraine.

Israel's attack on Iran is, in Putin's perception, also an attack on Russia. Putin believes that if Russia fails to achieve military success in Ukraine, it will be treated the same way as Iran in the future. In Putin's eyes, the attack on Iran suggests that Trump is trying to deceive Putin by saying that he is ready to share the world with him on the model of Yalta, while in reality Trump still adheres to the policy of a unipolar world with US hegemony.

I would cautiously suggest that the honeymoon period between Trump and Putin is coming to an end. That said, it is unlikely that Trump will somehow personally harden against Putin and start a personal vendetta with him, as he is too cowardly for that. Rather, he will simply lose interest in him and leave the fight against Russia to Congress.

Alexei Tikhonov, Telegram

You can support the website Charter97.org

MULTI-CURRENCY ACCOUNT FOR ASSISTANCE:

Bank's name: Bank Millennium S.A.
Address: ul. Stanislawa Zaryna, 2A, 02-593, Warszawa
IBAN: PL97116022020000000216711123
SWIFT: BIGBPLPW
Name of the account holder: Fundacja “KARTA ‘97”
Purpose/title of payment: Donation for statuary aims

You can contact us by the e-mail charter97@gmail.com