Will Iran Close The Strait Of Hormuz?
- 20.06.2025, 7:53
- 8,082
How the price of oil could rise.
The price of oil on the world market will remain at the level of 75-80 dollars per barrel in case Iran does not attack the strategic route of oil tankers, which runs through the Strait of Hormuz, during the conflict with Israel.
This is reported by RBC-Ukraine with reference to the director of energy programs of the Razumkov Center Vladimir Omelchenko.
What can be the price of oil in the base scenario? "If there is no massive attack on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the conflict will continue for several weeks of medium tension (as it is now approximately), then the price can be at this level - 75-80 dollars plus or minus a few percent. This, I think, should be taken as a base scenario," he told YouTube channel RBC-Ukraine.
He noted that about 25-30% of all oil exports to the world market pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
As of June 19, according to Bloomberg, the price of oil futures was $77.6 per barrel. The price has risen about $3 a barrel since June 13, when Israel attacked Iran's military installations.
The likelihood of Iran attacking the tanker route
"Whether Iran will attack the Strait of Hormuz or not depends a lot on that. If there is an attack on the Strait of Hormuz, it will be blocked ... then prices may rise to 90-100 dollars for some time," Vladimir Omelchenko said, adding that an Iranian strike on this strategic route of the tanker fleet is an attack on themselves, because then this country itself will not be able to export oil.
"Without this money, the Iranian economy will simply collapse. It will not be able to function normally," he added.
How Russia will benefit from the war in Iran
Vladimir Omelchenko added that Russia will benefit from the rise in oil prices to the level of 75-80 dollars per barrel.
"Its economy depends on oil prices on the world markets, Russia will receive more income," he said.
The expert noted that in general today on the world market demand for oil is low, this is a factor that stimulates the price to fall. If there is no escalation of the conflict and it will exhaust itself in a few weeks, then the price of Brent oil may return to the corridor of 60-65 dollars per barrel.
Reminder, according to monthly reports of OPEC, in 2024 Iran on average produced oil at the level of 3.3 million barrels per day. At the same time, global oil production in December last year was 103.5 million barrels per day (data from the International Energy Agency), so Iran's share in global production is only 3.1%.
According to Radio Liberty Europe, the main buyer of Iranian oil is China.
On June 18, Reuters reported that tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz have been advised to stay within Omani territorial waters and avoid Iranian waters, as Iran has threatened in the past to close the strait in response to Western sanctions.
Also on June 18, Reuters quoted Claudio Descalci, president of the Italian oil and gas company Eni, as saying that the escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is an unlikely scenario.
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