ISW: Putin's Strategy May Fail

If several conditions are met.

Over the past year, the West has failed to persuade Putin to reconsider his "theory of victory" in Ukraine. The Russian dictator still believes his army will win the war of attrition by maintaining a gradual advance along the front lines.

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) analyzed the Kremlin's rhetoric during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.

Exactly one year ago, during the same SPIEF, Putin first articulated his theory of victory. It is that his army will slowly but gradually advance.

At the same time, the Russian Armed Forces will not allow meaningful counteroffensive operations by the AFU, and as a result, the Kremlin will win the war of attrition.

The "victory theory" is also that Putin's army will advance with heavy losses, but that military operations will achieve incremental tactical success.

A year later, while speaking to the media at SPIEF, Putin did not change his victory theory. He stated that his army is advancing along the entire front line. In some areas, the advance is very slow, but Russian troops are not standing still or retreating.

Putin said that the terms of the peace treaty for Ukraine are tougher now than they were during the negotiation process in Istanbul in the spring of 2022. If Kiev does not give the go-ahead to the Kremlin's new terms, the situation will become even worse for Ukraine in the future.

The Russian dictator also said that the Kremlin is ready to achieve its goals militarily if diplomacy does not work.

Many Kremlin officials have also picked up on Putin's "victory theory," rephrasing it slightly in their own way. Thus yesterday Dmitri Peskov told a propaganda resource that diplomacy is not working today and that is why the fighting continues. Peskov said that time is on Russia's side and Moscow will not back down from its initial demands on Ukraine.

Putin's "victory theory" also includes the West's willingness to give up Ukraine. In addition, it assumes that Russian forces will be able to use their advantages in manpower and equipment to crush Ukrainian forces, that Ukrainian forces will not be able to liberate any operationally or strategically important territory that Russian forces capture.

The ISW continues to assess that in the medium term, Russia will face a number of challenges to its economy and defense industrial base that will impede Russia's ability to wage a prolonged war in Ukraine.

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