"Israel Is Betting On Regime Change In Iran"

Who is behind Tehran's nuclear program?

Israel has been attacking Iran's military targets for almost a week now, aiming to destroy its nuclear program. Can the IDF carry out this mission?

This is the question Charter97.org asked military expert Sergei Grabsky, a colonel in the reserve of the AFU, a participant in peacekeeping missions in Kosovo and Iraq:

- No, of course. Firstly, we need to understand the scope of the task. Secondly, we need to understand what exactly we mean by the destruction of the nuclear program. Israel cannot destroy physically, completely those facilities that are designated as nuclear program facilities. It does not have the appropriate ammunition. Technically it is impossible, because you can destroy, let's say, some elements on the surface, you can damage some elements that are buried deep, but the physical elements of the program that are somewhere deep underground - it is impossible to get them. Because, you know, the key aspects of the Iranian nuclear program were developed under the leadership of Russia.

Let's take the data of those nuclear physicists who were destroyed, or who have not been destroyed yet, you will be surprised, but most of them studied in Russian universities and even defended themselves there. Hence we can make a logical assumption that this entire nuclear program was supervised by specialists from Russia.

You know, there is such a concept as institutional experience, which says that the depth of such a facility should be a certain number of meters and not less. It should be equipped with such and such specific structures. So I am far from thinking that there is only one entrance and that's it. I am far from thinking that there are no duplicate utilities. I'm a long way from thinking that there's only one water line, power line, and so on. I'm far from thinking there's no generators and so forth. That is, some kind of self-sufficiency system, even if we assume that the entrances will be blocked.

Whatever powerful Israel is in its military capability, the factor of territory plays a role. So the answer is unequivocally and categorically no, of course.

But Israel doesn't count on that. Because it does not focus on destroying this program, but on destroying the regime in Iran and establishing democracy. A more flexible regime that will allow the issue to be resolved definitively.

I emphasize, the fact is that without admittance to the site, this task cannot be accomplished. I mean, some people here are saying, "here, they're going to land paratroopers there." I look at that with horror. Because there is a 99.999% chance that this paratroopers will not return.

To say that Israel can handle this program on its own is impossible. I will say more, even if America hands over some weapons, they would have to wipe the country off the face of the earth, destroying exactly the life support systems. Will America go for that? I'm sorry, I have serious doubts about that. Because immediately the world community would raise an uproar. I don't think it will.

Another point. I have said many times that the world has not prepared for such a war in recent times. The simplest question will arise: are you sure that even if the United States were to get involved, the amount of ammunition involved would support a mission of this size? This is not Afghanistan or Pakistan, where you can strike with one bomb, blowing up one structure.

What we are dealing with here is a program that is branched and dispersed. Therefore, even if you destroy an element of this program at some stage, you cannot destroy the whole program without being physically present on the spot. This should be clear to everyone.

- Tell us more about how Russia participated in this nuclear program.

By method of exclusion. With whom could the Iranians cooperate on nuclear programs? The United States? No. Britain? No. France? No. China? It's very cautious in this matter. That leaves Russia. Who's building the nuclear plants in Iran? Russia. As you and I have already determined, who trained the specialists? The same Russia.

Then who was involved in the development of this program? Who ensured cooperation, coordination of technologies? Only the Russian Federation, which is directly responsible for the development of Iran's nuclear program.

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