NYT: A US Attack On Iran Would Demonstrate China's Weakness
- 20.06.2025, 11:47
- 2,612
The PRC has much to lose from war in the Middle East, but little it can do about it.
U.S. President Donald Trump is considering deploying American troops to support Israel in an attack on Iran, with little China can do about it because its influence in the region is clearly limited, writes The New York Times .
China has much to lose from an out-of-control conflict. It buys virtually all of Iran's oil exports at a discount, using secret tanker fleets to evade U.S. sanctions. And its ships depend on safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz to transport additional Gulf oil.
Higher energy prices will be another major headache for Beijing as it tries to turn around its sluggish economy. In addition to energy, Iran provides China with an important beachhead in the Middle East to advance its interests and counter the United States.
"But despite these strategic interests, China, which has little influence over the Trump administration, is unlikely to stand up to Iran's military defense, especially if the United States intervenes in the war," the article noted.
"The reality is that they don't actually have the capability to bring in Chinese troops to defend Iranian facilities," said Zac Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, DC.
"They would prefer to very quietly provide some material support, some rhetorical support and perhaps some humanitarian assistance."
At the same time, the article emphasizes, China could also benefit if the United States is drawn into a protracted war in the Middle East, which could divert U.S. troops, ships and other military resources away from Asia.
"Trump's decision to strike Iran will be a lesson for Beijing that could shape its own geopolitical strategy. China will try to understand Trump's approach to foreign policy and his willingness to use force. The outcome could influence Beijing's assessment of whether the U.S. would come to Taiwan's defense if China decided to invade it."
The NYT writes that China's restrained response is reminiscent of that of Russia, which also merely issued statements of support for Iran despite receiving badly needed military aid from Tehran for its war in Ukraine.
This reaction raises questions about the cohesiveness of the quartet of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, which have converged diplomatically and militarily around a common opposition to the U.S.-dominated world order.
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