Russia's Banking System May Collapse
2- 26.06.2025, 16:32
- 4,218

The crisis could start within a year.
Estimates by experts call the likelihood of a banking collapse in Russia "achievable" by as early as April 2026 if the economic situation does not change.Russian banks are warning of growing problems with non-performing loans that could trigger a banking crisis in the next 12 months.
High interest rates and deteriorating customer solvency are leading to defaults and hidden debt growth, writes bloomberg.
Official reports have not yet recorded a serious rise in delinquencies, but internal documents speak of a "staggering" difference between official data and the real state of affairs. Banks estimate the volume of bad debts at trillions of rubles and are already taking measures to manage risks.In January-February 2025, the corporate loan portfolio of Russian banks decreased by 1.5 trillion rubles (about $19 billion). At the same time, banks are recording an increase in the share of non-performing retail loans and fear further growth of "doubtful" loans.Analysts of ACRA and CMACP predict a moderate probability of a systemic crisis by April 2026. If new lending declines and defaults intensify, the risk will increase. The regulator notes the concentration of risks in the 13 largest companies, the number of which has doubled over the year.
Despite the record profits of banks in 2024 (3.8 trillion rubles), the deterioration of the situation in industry and construction, as well as the debt burden of state-owned industries exacerbate the crisis. Military demand caused GDP growth of 4.5% in 2024, but growth slowed to 1.4% in Q1 2025.To alleviate the credit crunch, the Central Bank cut the key rate to 20% for the first time in three years, but rates remain at record highs.