The Defeat Of Russia's Long-range Aviation: Kremlin Has Nothing To Replace Destroyed Tu-95M And Tu-22M3s
4- 7.06.2025, 8:30
- 12,290
The trump cards are now in Ukraine's hands.
The defeat of Russian strategic aviation as part of an SBU special operation called "Spider Web" was a major blow to the Kremlin's military capabilities. The destroyed Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3 bombers have not been produced for decades, and Russia does not have new aircraft in sufficient numbers, Reuters wrote, citing statements by Western experts.
There is no alternative
Although the losses will not directly affect Russia's nuclear arsenal, which is based on land- and sea-based missiles, the role of the Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3 in the war against Ukraine was significant.
These aircraft were regularly used for missile strikes against Ukrainian population centers and infrastructure.
Some of them, as seen in videos released by the SBU, were armed with Kh-101 cruise missiles.
In addition, these aircraft were used by the Kremlin regime for demonstrations of force in the Arctic, North Atlantic and North Pacific.
An aviation expert Justin Bronk of RUSI estimates that Russia had about 50-60 Tu-95MS and about 60 Tu-22M3s before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began.
There were also about 20 more modern Tu-160Ms available. According to his estimates, Russia has already lost more than 10 percent of its Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3 fleet, including those destroyed and damaged in drone attacks and previous incidents.
It will be extremely difficult for the Kremlin to replace the lost aircraft. Production of the Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3 ended back in the Soviet years. Russia is now focusing on modernizing the old machines, but hull blanks may be in short supply, analyst Douglas Barry said.
Sanctions are complicating the supply of components, especially electronics, although some parts are coming in to bypass the restrictions. New Tu-160Ms are being produced extremely slowly - according to Russian sources, no more than four per year.
The development of the advanced PAK DA bomber is also progressing slowly. The first flight is scheduled for 2026 at the earliest, and serial production is planned for 2027, and experts believe it will be difficult to accelerate these deadlines in the face of sanctions pressure and budgetary constraints.
Trump cards up Ukraine's sleeve
U.S. President Donald Trump has recently been fond of repeating the phrase that Ukraine allegedly has no trump cards on the battlefield in the confrontation with Russia, but a large-scale attack on airfields where Russian strategic aviation is based demonstrates the fallacy of the White House host's judgment.
A former deputy assistant Pentagon chief Mike Mulroy called Ukraine's Operation Web one of the most successful operations in modern history. It was characterized by a high level of secrecy, precise coordination and effective use of intelligence.
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