Inflation Is Accelerating In Belarus

Both food and manufactured goods will go up in price.

Belarus has once again formed a negative balance of foreign trade: according to the National Statistics Committee, imports have exceeded exports by $2.3 billion since the beginning of 2025. Is this a problem? How will the foreign trade deficit affect the domestic economy and whether it will affect the lives of ordinary Belarusians?

- These are the figures, which are already worth worrying about," commented on the air of "Euroradio" economist, expert in public administration and international development Alisa Ryzhichenko. - The current negative balance for the Belarusian economy is really huge.

First of all, it will put pressure on the foreign exchange market, on price growth inside the country - that is, on inflation.

Exports are declining, primarily to Russia. And also to countries outside the CIS - this is due to new sanctions and duties that are introduced. For example, the EU imposed duties on fertilizers - and immediately Homel plant stopped exporting them to the EU, and is increasing exports to Turkey, but how profitable and logistically difficult it is is under great question.

And Belarus is increasing imports, because domestic demand is growing. Monetary policy remains soft, no one is tightening it, money is still available to the population - therefore, demand is not stagnating, and in order to avoid shortages, it is necessary to import more and more foreign goods.

In such a situation, adds the economist, it is necessary to increase exports in order to maintain a reasonable balance and not only withdraw, but also bring foreign currency into the country - but producers are obviously not doing well with it. Therefore, we should expect a rise in prices, which have already risen due to a slight relaxation of the much-talked-about decree of the Council of Ministers No. 713 on state regulation of prices.

Food and industrial goods will rise in price, warns Alisa Ryzhichenko:

- By the end of the year, inflation can easily reach 10%, if the authorities do not take additional measures, for example, to tighten the screws at the moment, forbidding this to export or import into the country.

The authorities planned the inflation rate in 2025 at 5%, but it has already exceeded these figures. Now the seasonality factor will influence - a lot of things will grow, harvest their fruits and vegetables and prices will go down. But in September-October there will be another setback, when everything will start to get more expensive again.

The majority of Belarusians don't feel it - the growth of household incomes amounted to 13% in the first quarter, if we believe the official statistics. And even the accelerated inflation will not eat up this increase.

But the question is how much one can believe the Belarusian state statistician - "in fact, people in the regions are still receiving a salary of Br800, and do not see the average wages in the country. And it is the owners of average and below average incomes who risk to feel inflation on their own purses and consumer baskets.

It is possible, of course, to count on the fact that now, according to Lukashenko's "clever peasant advice," Belarusian agriculture will plant all the fields with potatoes and onions, will gather a mega-harvest and sell it to needy Russia, and will have more than enough left for itself.

- Such are the plans of the Belarusian government every year - and every year they fail them, - states Alisa Ryzhichenko.

And she explains on her fingers: even if the conditions are favorable, the question is whether there will be a big (and qualitative) harvest. And the loans granted to agricultural enterprises for planting various crops will have to be repaid one way or another, i.e. the crop will have to be sold in order to earn money.

And either to sell the same potatoes at a market, not regulated, price in the domestic market, or to sell them more expensive for export - and then Belarusians will again face a shortage of potatoes and will be forced to buy imports that are not cheap. So, the prices for products will rise in any case, no matter how the authorities try to keep them down.

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