Will The Dollar Take The Coveted Bar
- 9.06.2025, 7:47
- 7,534
Forecast for the week.
By the end of last week, the U.S. dollar exchange rate in the Belarusian currency market made an attempt to return to the cherished Br3. On Thursday, June 5, the situation was almost realized, but on the last trading day on Friday, June 6, the rate still stabilized below Br3. What rates to expect this week, says financial analyst Mikhail Grachev in the traditional forecast myfin.by.
Total for last week, the dollar exchange rate rose by a minimal +0.04% and by the end of trading stopped at the value of USD/BYN 2.9970. By the beginning of the year the change in the exchange rate remains almost the same -13.72%. Last week's trading volume remains at the maximum values for four weeks and amounted to $86.538 million.
The exchange rate of the Russian ruble for last week changed in a similar way - from the growth of the rate at the beginning of the week to a decline at the end of five trading days. On Wednesday, the ruble was rising in the Belarusian market to RUB/BYN 3.7913 per 100 Russian rubles, but Friday's trading ended with the rate of RUB/BYN 3.7791. In total, the Russian ruble fell in price by the same -0.04% during the last trading week, but since the beginning of the year it has been growing by +12.85%. The ruble trading volume is also near yearly highs.
Wait for changes with the Russian ruble?
On the Russian financial market almost all last week the dollar exchange rate was in a fairly narrow range, but by the end of the week it minimally increased in price to USD/RUB 78.85. It is not excluded that this reversal will remain in force at the beginning of the week. But with minimal consequences for the exchange rate.
The main factors that served as support for the ruble are still in play. This is a fairly tight monetary policy of the Central Bank of Russia and a surplus of foreign currency supply in the domestic market.
Last Friday, the Bank of Russia lowered the key rate by -1.00% to 20.00% for the first time in three years. A bit of a departure from the high. But, firstly, the 20.00% left remains an exceptionally high rate and has had little effect on the high yields of OFZs, which remain a highly sought-after instrument. High rates on deposits are also not going to go down yet, which leaves ruble deposits attractive. Secondly, in her explanatory speech, Mrs. Nabiullina left the possibility of revising the rate cut to an increase in case inflation rates return to growth. Friday's key rate cut was quite expected, but not a radical change in monetary policy.
The euro may get cheaper
Besides the domestic market, the US dollar exchange rate remains at low levels on the global market and appears to suit the current US administration quite well. The cheaper dollar makes American exports quite attractive, which is clearly in line with the policy.
But on the daily chart of the main pair EUR/USD technical figure "double top" is forming, it is not excluded that after the next meeting of the Fed on June 16, the rate may slide south to 1.0950.
If such a scenario is realized in the Belarusian currency market, the euro exchange rate may fall, which is now slightly above EUR/BYN 3.4220. The euro remains outside the currency basket of the National Bank, so trading on the BCSE is held with minimal volumes.
Weekly Forecast
In general, we can say that there are no significant factors that could change the current rates of major foreign currencies. Hence, most likely, the US dollar and Russian ruble exchange rate this week will be near the last values. A minimal growth of the dollar slightly above three rubles, approximately up to 3.050 rubles, is not excluded. The Russian ruble, meanwhile, is slightly cheaper to 3.750 per 100 Russian rubles.
Bank's name: Bank Millennium S.A.
Address: ul. Stanislawa Zaryna, 2A, 02-593, Warszawa
IBAN: PL97116022020000000216711123
SWIFT: BIGBPLPW
Name of the account holder: Fundacja “KARTA ‘97”
Purpose/title of payment: Donation for statuary aims
You can contact us by the e-mail charter97@gmail.com
