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"Lukashenko Realizes That His Game Is Exhausted."

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"Lukashenko Realizes That His Game Is Exhausted."
Photo: Getty Images

The line on rejecting a dictator in the West has long been crossed.

Lawyer and blogger Mark Feigin told "Radio Svaboda" about why Lukashenko has nothing to rely on.

- Despite the release of some political prisoners, the regime in Belarus can't change," said Mark Feigin. - And it can't even mimic any more. It has passed these stages, when it could still pretend something.

It is impossible to imagine elections in Belarus now, in which the opposition takes part.

Lukashenko in 2020 was guided by considerations of his own survival and his own security. He needed a confrontation with Moscow, even though it was so light.

But he feared that Moscow wanted to replace him in a legal way, and he could then go along with the West and pretend to have full-fledged elections.

There were none, but he could pretend. Now this regime cannot afford what it could in 2020.

Now there is a different trade. Lukashenko no longer needs to portray that Belarus has free elections. Who will be influenced by that? Even he realizes that this game is exhausted.

Now he can really only trade people for some indulgences, for the opportunity to move some sanctions a little bit.

And this, by the way, is possible. I am sure that people will be traded for sanctions, that Lukashenko will be given leniency, because people are more important. And sanctions can be imposed ten times again.

At the same time, Lukashenko himself has nothing to count on in the European Union, Feigin is sure. He won't be able to gain favor and return legitimacy.

- It's impossible to expect that Lukashenko will be accepted as a full member of the European community in the Council of Europe or elsewhere. This line has been passed definitively. He does not have to count on it.

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