Volodymyr Fesenko: Trump Asked Zelensky About Strikes On Moscow For A Reason

What awaits Russia if Putin ignores the US president's ultimatum?

Why has US President Donald Trump changed his position on Russia and Ukraine? Can his ultimatum seriously influence Putin?

About this, Charter97.org spoke to Vladimir Fesenko, a well-known Ukrainian political scientist and head of the Penta Center for Applied Political Research:

- So far, Trump's increased pressure on Russia is rather symbolic, a warning. But it is already obvious that these are attempts to put pressure on Putin. Even the deadlines have been set, these 50 days, which is Trump's style.

But the most important thing for us Ukrainians, of course, is the resumption of American arms deliveries. The weapons that were supposed to be in Poland are already in Ukraine. And now, just yesterday there were talks in Washington, with the participation of the German defense minister, NATO Secretary General Marco Rutte. There are talks about new deliveries, larger, more voluminous American weapons to Ukraine. That's the most important thing. Why did this happen?

The reason is obvious. Two factors worked here simultaneously. On the one hand, Trump was very disappointed that Putin was not taking any constructive action to end the war in Ukraine. Talking to him is "nice," as Trump himself says, but there are no solutions, nor are there any concrete actions. Moreover, Putin is not only not negotiating an end to the war, but is intensifying it. Trump described it vividly, say, he talks to me well, I stop talking to him and it turns out that after that he starts bombing Ukraine. Every time a new some city.

This causes, of course, irritation to Trump. I emphasize, not just displeasure, but irritation, because on the one hand it undermines the trust of the US president in Putin, and on the other hand, it shows disrespect to Trump himself. It irritates him a lot. He doesn't want to look like a weakling. He doesn't want to look like a man who is so brazenly deceived, saying one thing and doing the exact opposite. That's why Trump in his style decided to show Putin, "You don't want to negotiate nicely? I was ready to make concessions to you, but you don't want to. Then it's going to be the bad way."

The bad way is supplying weapons to Ukraine. As the U.S. ambassador to NATO said: since Putin wants to go to war, then we will help Ukraine go to war with Russia.

So this reversal is logical enough for Trump. It is, of course, caused by Putin's situational actions, the escalation of the war against Ukraine. But in fact, such a methodology was suggested to Trump as early as last year. Advisers to the future US president a year ago, during the election campaign, offered him the following logic of action: if Russia does not agree to stop the war, then we must supply weapons to Ukraine.

If Ukraine does not agree, then we must stop supplying weapons to the AFU. But Ukraine agrees. Ukraine is being constructive, but Putin is not. So what has happened now is a surprise to many, but many are wondering how long it will last. We don't know the answer to that question, but it makes sense.

- How serious are the tariffs and the aid to Ukraine that Trump is proposing?"

- The aid is serious. It's just the beginning so far, and there are a lot of other questions there: how many Patriot will there be, whether there will be long-range missiles, what kind of missiles. There are still details that need to be clarified.

Secondly, we need to work out the payment scheme, supplies. Most likely, they will go through the European Union. NATO will coordinate these supplies, judging by the words of Trump and Rutte. There is more clarity on weapons. There is already a political decision here, and further on there is the harmonization of specific agreements, delivery mechanisms, deadlines, and so on. Everything is clearer here, everything is more logical.

What concerns sanctions, pressure on Russia, there are more questions than answers. It seems that the Lindsey Graham bill has been suspended for now. It wasn't very realistic, and even if it is considered, there will still be an amendment in there regarding the timing of these sanctions. The scope of the sanctions will be determined solely by Trump. There would be no automatic sanctions. That's an important point. The president of the United States will decide how much percent against which country, when and how.

But these 100 percent tariffs on trade with Russia are nothing, irrelevant. U.S. trade volumes with Russia are minuscule. I think it's a little over three billion in goods the U.S. buys from Russia. The amounts are not very large. They are not very important for Russia.

Tariffs for buyers of Russian oil - yes, it is serious. There is pressure on this topic, a price ceiling. I think that in fact, now the Europeans together with the Americans will coordinate, look for more effective ways to put pressure on Russia. Exactly on the supply of Russian oil to the international market. This is the most important thing. So far, we have not seen any clear concrete actions on Trump's part.

- Will his 50-day ultimatum be like the tariff war: constant postponements of the deadline and softening of positions?

- The 50-day deadline is Trump's style. It's what's called "managed escalation." That's right, he's acting exactly the same way on tariff policy. He's sending out "chain letters" right now and saying there will be tariffs of 25-30% across the board, but starting August 1. And you still have until August 1 to negotiate. And the same thing with China, he gave two or three months to negotiate before. So that's his style. When he put pressure on Iran, he gave it 60 days.

Many people laughed, but what happened in the end? A pinpoint strike on Iran. It is unlikely that Trump will strike Russia, but the talk about long-range missiles, and this information that appeared that Trump allegedly asked Zelensky if he was ready to strike Moscow, I'll tell you, this is not accidental.

This is also a form of pressure. The Americans themselves will not strike, but they may strike through Ukraine. There are risks involved, of course. This is a very delicate topic, but 50 days is Trump's style. Give a deadline, but if there is no action, then there may be tougher decisions.

Another thing is that with a high probability, of course, Russia will not comply with this ultimatum, so as not to show weakness. If the methods of pressure, especially economic pressure, are serious enough, if the military situation can be stabilized and the strikes on Russian territory are significant, I do not exclude that by the end of the year real negotiations may begin. But in the coming months we will see an escalation of hostilities.

Trump is showing: since Putin wants war, then we will help Ukraine to fight. This is logical, and it's very important for Ukraine. Whatever the reason for Trump's actions, the fact that he went along with them is certainly in line with Ukrainian interests.

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