A Chance For Ukraine

Has Trump changed his attitude toward Russia and Putin?

It is strange to see how those who until a few months - and sometimes weeks ago - urged us to understand Trump and go along with any of his nonsense when he called Putin and bragged about great conversations with him, now that Trump seems far more appropriate and less favorable to Putin, are trying to convince us of the opposite - of maintaining that favor.

First of all, Donald Trump is favorable to only one person in the world - Donald Trump. Everyone else - from Melania Trump to Putin to Si Jinping - is just a stage set around his "greatness." And Trump favors only one country - America. But the America he envisions. All other nations are just a backdrop for the "America First" theater. If some country disappears from the world map, Trump may not even notice it. Neither Ukraine nor Greenland are of value to him. But neither is Russia.

Second, Trump doesn't like it when the decorations of his greatness look ugly or don't match his idea of an ideal world. When Zelensky refused to play the role of convenient prop, he got a backlash. Now that Putin doesn't want to be an "adequate" part of that set - the reaction is similar. Those who know how to properly present themselves as props win. The best example is Mark Rutte. And those who are not capable of playing this role are better to step aside until 2029 and stay out of the way.

Putin tries to portray a convenient partner, but only as far as it benefits him. His narcissism and tendency to overreach have put Putin in a foolish position more than once in dealing with Trump. It would seem, though, that his KGB experience should have helped him. But 25 years of unlimited power disqualifies anyone. And Putin has never been a good KGB man.

Third, Trump's 50 Days is not an invitation to Putin to continue his occupation of Ukraine. Putin will continue it anyway - regardless of sanctions or Western arms. But Trump always gives clear deadlines to those he wants to build into his correct picture of the world. Consider Iran, for example. No one believed that 60 days after Trump's ultimatum, a 12-day war would begin. Now the Russians don't. But if they don't react appropriately - Trump's actions in 50 days could be much more serious. Yes, he won't start by acting with his own hands - he will first act with ours. Including handing over long-range missiles demanding a strike on Moscow.

Could this lead to a nuclear strike by Russia? Yes, it could. But such a strike is possible without decisive action on our part. It is better to have means of response than to have none at all. And yes - in case of a nuclear strike on Ukraine - Trump can go to war with Russia on his own. Because his "set up" will be shattered to pieces. That doesn't mean WWIII will start in 50 days, but the speed at which we are approaching it is definitely increasing. And yes, World War III is one of the possible scenarios for preserving Ukrainian statehood. Because in a global conflagration it is easier to survive on the periphery.

Fourth - this is not an apocalyptic forecast. It is Trump's unpredictability that might make Putin think twice about those 50 days. And at least simulate a peace process that would lead to a cease-fire - not on Putin's terms, but on Trump's terms. Yes, it could be a temporary pause - for weeks, months, even years. But this pause will allow Ukraine to prepare seriously for the next war, to create an effective government and build deterrence that will make Putin think a hundred times before launching a new offensive.

So Trump's frustration at the decorum is our chance. And it would be a sin not to take it.

Vitaly Portnikov, Facebook

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