How Putin's Downfall May Begin
12- Alexander Motyl
- 15.07.2025, 17:18
- 24,778
Miracles apparently do happen after all.
President Donald Trump has just announced that the US will provide Ukraine with "billions and billions" of weapons, all paid for by Europe. His interlocutor in the Oval Office - NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte - added that Ukraine will receive "a huge amount of military equipment."
This is more bad news for Russia.
First: the visual effect
Let's start with the appearance of the situation: Trump and Rutte, the US and NATO - an organization that the Trump administration has previously criticized repeatedly, so much so that some have even suggested a possible American withdrawal from the alliance. Joint support for Ukraine may only be a temporary détente - or it could be the beginning of a friendlier relationship. Either way, it's bad news for Russia.
Second: A compromise solution for everyone
Trump and Europe seem to have found a way to support Ukraine in a way that everyone wins. Ukrainians win by getting weapons;
Europeans win by supporting them; Americans win because the weapons are paid for by Europe.
The only loser is Vladimir Putin.
Third: A signal to Moscow
The United States and Europe have made it clear to Putin that they will not abandon Ukraine to his genocidal plans. Western aid may be enough to not only stop, but perhaps reverse, Russia's gradual territorial gains, which have already cost it more than a million dead and wounded.
Fourth: Putin's vulnerability
To stop Russia's offensive, Putin's regime must be undermined. The Russian dictator has so deeply identified himself - both his political and physical life - with this war that anything short of a crushing victory would be a humiliating defeat. This could undermine his legitimacy and trigger a coup.
Russia's economy teeters on the brink of collapse, so don't be surprised if Putin leaves the Kremlin as early as this year.
Fifth: The only way to a truce is pressure
Stopping Putin is the only way to get him to agree to at least a semblance of a truce or peace. Not because he will suddenly have an epiphany, but because some kind of peace may be the only way for him to contain his enemies and retain his throne.
The infighting inside the Kremlin will intensify - more bad news for Russia.
Sixth: the psychological effect
The increased supply of Western arms will be a huge morale booster for the Ukrainian people - resilient but tired and partly demoralized. Ukrainians have been afraid of being abandoned by the West. Now that fear will probably recede.
We can expect a boost in morale, which in turn will only increase depression in Russia, especially among those dying on the front lines without meaning to.
Seventh: the humanitarian dimension
Western aid means that Russia's mass murder of Ukrainian civilians will decrease, and Ukraine's chances of surviving - and possibly winning - will increase dramatically. Which, of course, is bad news for Putin and for Russia.
The End of Putin?
The challenge facing the Trump administration is simple: stay the course and take the 50-day deadline seriously. In addition, it needs to be prepared to impose all tariffs when - not if - Putin refuses to agree to peace.
At that point, if Russia's elites realize that Putin is incapable of winning, they may decide to get rid of him and consider ending this bloody war. But for such a miraculous turnaround to be possible, President Trump must hold the line - and not back down.
Not once.
Alexander Motyl, The Moscow Times
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