Maxim Pleshko: Lukashenko Will Find Himself In A Serious Threat Zone
10- 16.07.2025, 16:48
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How will Trump's ultimatum to the Kremlin affect the Belarusian dictator?
US President Donald Trump has given Putin an ultimatum: 50 days for peace with Ukraine or tough sanctions.
How can this deadline affect Lukashenko, who has been helping the Kremlin since the first day of the war? The site Charter97.org talked about it with Maxim Pleshko, candidate of philosophical sciences, head of the Ukrainian Center for Belarusian Communications:
- Let's reason. Obviously, Ukraine will have more opportunities to defend itself. It's clear that Ukraine will get possibly offensive weapons that can strike key nodes and control centers in Russia, which will weaken the Russian military machine. It is also clear that if sanctions do get imposed - which they will if Putin does not agree to the ultimatum - they will seriously cripple the Russian economy. This was directly discussed even at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, where high-ranking Russian officials admitted: recession is a matter of the near future.
Accordingly, it will hit the budget - there will be less money for the army, for the maintenance of the entire military machine. And it means that there will be less money to support the Belarusian regime, because everybody understands very well that Lukashenko is fully tied to the Russian economy, to the Russian military-industrial complex, he is embedded in Russian schemes. So the less money Putin has, the less money Lukashenko and his dictatorial economy have. This is an obvious conclusion.
If Putin decides to negotiate and freezes the situation, it is more difficult to predict. In this case, Lukashenko will also try to distance himself somehow and regain at least a semblance of independence, start some negotiations and so on.
It seems to me that Lukashenko personally even benefits from freezing the war - in this case there are fewer risks for him. Because if Putin goes for broke and continues escalation, Putin's regime may collapse. And if that happens, Lukashenko will also find himself in the zone of serious threat. But this is still speculation - it is difficult to predict.
- It is already evident that Putin rejects Trump's ultimatum and escalates. What should we expect from the Belarusian regime in this situation?
- If Putin really rejects the ultimatum, it is extremely inadequate. After all, there was a moment when Putin could have capitalized on the fact that Donald Trump praised him and was unhappy with Ukraine. At the time, the U.S. president suggested freezing the front along the line where it is now. But Putin chose to bully Trump. And finally, the US president realized it. Everyone has long accepted this reality. Trump has finally accepted it as well. Putin is moving on. It is clear that the Russian elites are in shock - they had hoped that at least somehow it would be possible to freeze the war.
It is obvious that the senile old man in the Kremlin does not care that a hundred thousand of his fellow citizens will die in Ukraine in six months. It's just a prank for him to prank Trump, tell him they're friends, and then talk nonsense about the 12th century and putting a hundred thousand of his citizens in the ground in six months. He's just a crazy old man, and how it's going to go from here, nobody knows. I wouldn't be in a hurry to say that Putin has finally rejected the ultimatum, we still have to see.
But if he has rejected it, then, frankly speaking, it seems to me that Lukashenko would benefit from freezing and stabilizing the situation. Because then Putin will become weaker and will not push Lukashenko into risky adventures. We understand perfectly well that all this inflating of Lukashenko's peacock tail comes from Putin. The Belarusian dictator does not need any attacks on Europe and so on. He needs stability of the regime - first of all, he is worried about preserving power, for his life, for his children.
That's why, in my opinion, stabilization of the war is more in Lukashenko's interests.