WP: Putin Will Pay A Colossal Price

Trump's ultimatum will cost Russia dearly.

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has no plans to compromise on the war in Ukraine, dashing hopes for a peace agreement that would end the war or restore Moscow's relations with the West, writes The Washington Post.

"Analysts see the refusal to compromise as a strategic mistake that will come at a huge cost to Russia in terms of international influence, markets for energy exports and global allies," the Post notes.

According to Russia expert Michael Kimmage, Putin's intention to keep Ukraine out of NATO and his demand that Russia be recognized for the territories it has seized indicate that his determination to keep fighting is not based on protecting Russia's rational security interests, but rather is an "emotional fixation."

He added that while Putin is partly driven by concerns about NATO expansion to Russia's borders, there is also a sense that he is "taking revenge" on Ukraine for not being an obedient allied state like Belarus.

"It's deeply irrational, even fanatical, but it's one of the many reasons why I think Putin just can't disengage from this war," Kimmage says.

In the meantime, Russia's relations with important neighbors, including Kazakhstan, Armenia and Azerbaijan, have deteriorated. Also before the war, Putin prided himself on his ability to negotiate with all players in the Middle East, but he has since lost influence and allies.

The war has also caused Russia's economy to become heavily dependent on China. In 2021, before the war, Russia exported 49% of its oil and 74% of its gas to Europe, but since the war began, it has sharply reduced imports, and Russia now sells most of its energy at discounted prices to China and India.

"Russia's constricted trade opportunities, an economy heavily oriented toward military production, and the future burden of military pensions all threaten long-term prosperity."

First Ukraine, now the West

Putin's failure to capitalize on Trump's concessions sets the stage for a war without end and reinforces the long-held view among his inner circle that the U.S. will always be Russia's adversary, WP writes.

"With Trump's tougher tone toward Putin, Russian analysts are once again portraying this war as the centerpiece of Russia's messianic struggle against the United States and the West," the article notes.

At the same time, as historian Stephen Kotkin notes, historically Russia has always achieved its greatest prosperity when it has deep economic ties to its Western neighbors.

"Before trying to conquer it all, Russia had far more influence over Ukraine than it does today. Largely because of the use of force, Russia's position in Eurasia, including in regions where it once dominated, is weakening," he writes.

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