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Trump's 50 Days For Putin

8
Trump's 50 Days For Putin

The President of the United States will have to make decisions.

The deadline that Donald Trump has set for Vladimir Putin to reach an agreement to end the Russian-Ukrainian war is still one of the most debated topics related to the former American president's latest statements. Indeed, why exactly 50 days and not, say, 20 or 7?

Some believe that by doing so, Trump is giving Putin the opportunity to seize more Ukrainian territory. However, given the pace of the Russian army offensive in recent years, 50 days is too short even to reach the administrative borders of the annexed Ukrainian regions.

Others link this deadline to an ultimatum that Trump once gave to Iran. At the time, it was 60 days - and few believed anything significant would happen after that time. On the 61st day, however, the 12-day Israeli-Iran war began, during which the U.S. struck Iranian nuclear facilities. This could be a signal: there seems to be enough time, but once it is over, Trump may move to decisive action.

The explanation, however, could be far more pragmatic - Trump needs to decide on a strategy for the war. Obviously, he wants to end it, at least at the level of a ceasefire. And he wants to do it before the aid approved by Congress under Biden runs out. There are only a few billion dollars left of that aid - and it will probably be spent just in the remaining 50 days.

If Putin had agreed to a cease-fire, Trump could have dropped the need to approve a new military aid package and instead pushed for talks between Moscow and Kiev. Putin, however, does not seem intent on responding to Trump's initiatives.

Trump has already made significant concessions that the Kremlin has sought: he has been willing to discuss recognizing Russia's status for the occupied territories - most notably Crimea - even though this undermines international law and encourages aggression. It forced Ukraine to participate in a mock negotiation process initiated by the Kremlin only to frustrate the implementation of the ultimatum European leaders agreed to with it, which called for a cease-fire as early as May 12. He even suspended military aid to Kiev before his recent conversation with Putin - though he later claimed he was unaware of the defense secretary's decision.

Till then, Putin remained adamant and ignored Trump's efforts, limiting himself to duty compliments about him. Trump himself has noticed this, saying that pleasant conversations with the Russian leader end each time with new strikes on Ukrainian cities.

Now, if the war does not end, Trump will have to make decisions - both about new sanctions against Russia (and he would apparently like to weaken the existing ones) and about continuing to provide Ukraine with weapons. Right now, we are talking about a scheme in which military equipment is financed by the EU, but if the conflict escalates, the US may be forced to get involved directly. This is exactly what Putin has 50 days to do - while the "Biden legacy" is still in effect - so that he realizes the impossibility of seizing all of Ukraine, which is the real goal of his war, and agrees to a truce.

If Putin again refuses to compromise, Trump will have to increase pressure - both on Russia and its partners - and provide Ukraine with more weapons, but not for negotiations, but for pressure to end the war as soon as possible. Thus, 50 days is more about a possible escalation not on the Ukrainian front, but in relations between the US and Russia. After all, Putin does not look like a man willing to voluntarily give up his obsession to destroy Ukraine.

Vitaly Portnikov, vilni-media.com

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