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The Ukrainian Armed Forces Are Beginning To Retake Their Positions

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The Ukrainian Armed Forces Are Beginning To Retake Their Positions

A military expert revealed the details.

The actions of the Russian occupation army in the north of Kharkiv region, the attempt to attack Ukrainian positions near Volchansk, are mostly related not to the intention to break through in this direction, but to the attempt to move away from the front line and protect their own arsenals, warehouses and headquarters located near Shebekino in Belgorod region, where they constantly "fly in". At the same time, on the Zaporizhzhya direction the enemy has a certain success in the area of Kamenskoye - there he has concentrated quite a large grouping.

The past week, however, has shown a certain positive trend. The defense forces are conducting counter-offensive operations, throwing back the enemy, including in Sumy region. But the main emphasis, as before, is made on the exhaustion of the resources of the occupation army. The AFU daily "bleed" the Russian military machine to make it unable to fight effectively.

This opinion was expressed by military expert Vladislav Seleznev in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA.

- Could you comment on the information shared by the head of the Center for the Study of Occupation Petro Andryushchenko - that the Russian occupation army is transferring manpower from the occupied part of Zaporizhzhya in the direction of Taganrog or Rostov-on-Don, 20 trucks. According to Andryushchenko's assumptions, these forces can be transferred to Sumyshchyna. Do you think that this is really true, and how serious is this transfer?

- First of all, with all due respect to Mr. Andryushchenko, he makes an assumption, not an unequivocal statement that this is the purpose for which such a large number of forces and means are being moved. I understand that 20 trucks is approximately up to a company of personnel with the appropriate equipment, logistics. A company is 100-120 people. So it is not that many. This number of personnel will not fundamentally change the situation on the battlefield.

Again, I still emphasize your attention to the fact that Andryushchenko makes an assumption, but does not claim that this is exactly what is happening. As for a rational solution, does it make sense to shift resources from the south of Zaporizhzhya region to Sumy direction? I think there is no sense in it.

Why? The huge shoulder for the movement of forces and means actually nullifies the effectiveness and efficiency of the movement of such forces and means. In principle, the enemy can transfer part of its strategic reserves from the direction of Volchansk, Liptsy, Kupyansk direction, if it has a need to increase its pressure in the Sumy direction. But the trends of the past three weeks, as far as I am concerned, are absolutely obvious.

Despite the increase in the number of personnel of the Russian army operating in the Sumy direction, the enemy has no territorial gains in three weeks. That is, he has actually stumbled into our engineering fortifications created in the Sumy direction and has no opportunity to move further into the depths of our borders and positions. Engineering structures, trenches, dugouts, anti-personnel, anti-tank, minefields, low-visibility engineering obstacles do their job. And, of course, our soldiers, who every time repel enemy attacks.

I would say more, the past week has already demonstrated a certain trend. We are already conducting counter-offensive measures, and in some places on the Sumy direction we are throwing the enemy back to the initial lines and positions.

That is, in principle, the enemy can continue to transfer forces and means, but if we are talking about the efficiency of these measures, it is much more profitable for him to transfer these resources from the nearest parts of the front. I do not think that the issue is on a rational plane when we are talking about the transfer of Russian forces and means from the Zaporizhzhya direction. Especially since the enemy is now trying to seriously intensify its efforts in this direction.

Somewhere he is having success, Lobkovoye is occupied. The enemy is fighting in the northern part of Kamenskoye. Moreover, I was sure that we will hold these lines and positions indefinitely. There are water obstacles and quite serious engineering fortifications. But, nevertheless, the enemy was able to concentrate enough forces and means to effectively attack this section of the front.

So I do not think that in the context of the movement of enemy forces and means from Zaporizhzhya direction to Sumshchina this option works in this way. As a version - yes, but it hardly has anything to do with the realities on the battlefield.

- Could you assess the situation in Kharkiv region? In particular, in the context of Volchansk. The 57th Independent Motorized Infantry Brigade reported that the enemy has practically leveled the city to the ground. How do you assess the enemy's prospects in this particular direction? Do you think, for example, that two separate bridgeheads in Kharkivshchyna can be connected? How can events develop?

- I know this area very well, my relatives live in the Shebekinsky district. Shebekino and Volchansk - both these settlements are about 6-7 kilometers from the state border line. Accordingly, the leverage for the Russians to attack our lines in the Volchansk direction is quite short.

In turn, we are constantly working, using our units on the territory of Shebekino. Bases, arsenals, warehouses, places of concentration of personnel, command post, communication control center on the territory of Shebekino are legitimate targets for us. And it's constantly being flown there. I am subscribed to one of the leading monitoring resources of the Russian Federation, I observe what air alerts are reported there. The absolute majority of these alerts take place on the territory of the Belgorod region, including the territory of the Shebekinsky district.

The enemy, trying to actively influence our Volchansk defenders, is trying to move our forces away from the state border. Thus, trying to secure Shebekino and its surroundings from the influence of our rockets, our drones and other systems of fire defeat. But does the enemy have a chance to succeed?

In May of last year, on May 10, the enemy decided to launch a large-scale offensive. A 40,000-strong group of Russian troops operated in the north of Kharkiv region. The effectiveness of this attack - 3-5, up to 6 kilometers in some parts of the front. Then we managed to partially regain our territories within the framework of counter-offensive measures.

I think that this time all the efforts of the enemy will have a similar final result. The Russians are unlikely to achieve any significant success even at the tactical level on this section of the front. The line of engineering fortifications and the transparency of the battlefield allows me to state quite unambiguously that the enemy will make attempts to attack in this direction, but all of them will be unsuccessful.

- You have already said that the Defense Forces are conducting counter-offensive measures. Indeed, there has been positive news recently. In particular, the latest news is that the Defense Forces have advanced in the direction of Borovoy in Kharkiv region. Do you think that these counter-offensive activities can be intensified, scaled up? If yes, thanks to what?

- Thanks to the fact that the Ukrainian army is constantly weakening the offensive potential of the Russian army. And here we are not just talking about the battlefield itself. That is, the very kill zone of 10-20 kilometers, where we are working on all the forces and means of the enemy, which is moving to the starting lines to attack us.

This is also diplomatic, that is, our work on the rear areas of the Russian Federation, including Russian defense industry facilities that build drones and create a certain element base for these drones, on places where explosives are produced for Russian drones, missiles and artillery shells. In other words, we are gradually, albeit not as quickly, not at the pace we would like, but we are squeezing out, emasculating Russia's offensive potential.

And in principle, this logic is obvious. By gradually bleeding the Russian military machine, we are turning it into a kind of impotent creation, which may have very big and even ambitious plans, but is unlikely to be able to realize these plans because of its weakness. And in order to achieve this state of the Russian army, a state of weakness, the Ukrainian army is acting here and now.

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