Agrofrustration Of Lukashenko

The lack of money and reaction in the Kremlin makes the dictator very nervous.

Lukashenko is frustrating. In his performance it looks like agrofrustration - a trip to the goats, which become in the moment a new "wunderwaffe".

The external circuit, despite the equilibrium, is not ready for serious steps. Full-fledged negotiations with the US are over the horizon. Common interests for the future are not in sight. Preserving some autonomy is the maximum of why Donald Trump's administration is willing to tolerate the existence of the agrojunta. Such a position does not guarantee survival in the long term.

Russia, after bombing Ukraine's civilian infrastructure, is facing the prospect of tougher sanctions from the US and Europe. At the same time, Europe is ready to impose more severe restrictions than those recently blocked by Slovakia and Hungary. This will automatically hit Lukashenko's fellow man. Cheap oil is not a boon, but a blow to the economy. Russia will not be able to buy the junta's products and the contrabass that goes through it in the same volume.

At the same time, Putin also understands perfectly well that Lukashenko's flirtations with the West will lead to nothing. So, a ritual dance. And there is not even much irritation there, there is simply no time to react, and no resources to support the growing appetites of an ally.

The lack of money and reaction in the Kremlin makes Lukashenko very nervous. There is no worse feeling than not being needed.

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